{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99e93987-bbec-443d-aed8-b8e5dd4045c7", "symbol": "REFI", "name": "Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.297, "architecture_energy": 77.437, "architecture_maturity": 30.751, "architecture_confidence": 88.346, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 10.82, "upward_expansion": 18.43, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 74.74, "downward_expansion": 94.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.197333, 10.432389, 10.721702, 10.937838 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.27, "trend_reference": 11.216611, "distance_from_trend": -0.084394, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.835669, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132284, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.71491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116, "excess_performance": -0.303453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084394, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036866, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132284, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019642, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.668848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 935184, "relative_activity": 1.172277, "balance": 0.668848, "dry_up": 1.017807, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044256, "annualized_volatility": 0.224626, "from_high_reference": -0.209705, "from_low_reference": 0.059856 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.216611, "fair_value_reference": 11.835669, "structural_low": 9.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.001569, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.018891, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.108096, "worst_return": -0.060082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.018125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.157044, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.000546, "worst_return": -0.066281, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.017589, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.191493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.017589, "worst_return": -0.017589, "sufficient": false }, { 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43.392166, "activity_lines": [ 10.896272, 11.019354, 11.23375, 11.378193 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.93076, "volume": 1499690, "typical_volume": 786341.35, "trend": 11.54114, "fair_value": 11.832487, "relative_strength": -19.338848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.723782, "energy": 35.296294, "activity_lines": [ 10.914155, 10.963205, 11.192119, 11.336947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.68, "volume": 862935, "typical_volume": 787029.15, "trend": 11.504148, "fair_value": 11.835119, "relative_strength": -21.234106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.44934, "energy": 38.300354, "activity_lines": [ 10.841425, 10.882903, 11.129877, 11.281389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.82, "volume": 685528, "typical_volume": 794885.4, "trend": 11.44963, "fair_value": 11.838518, "relative_strength": -21.019771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.182173, "energy": 35.020911, "activity_lines": [ 10.829525, 10.854783, 11.084793, 11.237251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.62, "volume": 836726, "typical_volume": 807642.9, "trend": 11.403241, "fair_value": 11.841113, "relative_strength": -18.621371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.927873, "energy": 44.338014, "activity_lines": [ 10.75004, 10.802764, 11.023774, 11.183726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.17, "volume": 757250, "typical_volume": 816577.65, "trend": 11.337536, "fair_value": 11.840302, "relative_strength": -20.281688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.342651, "energy": 66.326821, "activity_lines": [ 10.538717, 10.684157, 10.924878, 11.104162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.76, "volume": 718661, "typical_volume": 824908.0, "trend": 11.270494, "fair_value": 11.8351, "relative_strength": -23.387094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.230991, "energy": 82.487576, "activity_lines": [ 10.244, 10.502224, 10.794604, 11.002386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.27, "volume": 935184, "typical_volume": 797749.95, "trend": 11.216611, "fair_value": 11.835669, "relative_strength": -22.71491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.296744, "energy": 77.437203, "activity_lines": [ 10.197333, 10.432389, 10.721702, 10.937838 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }