{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99f48d6c-e44e-4229-9359-42d6ceb0b475", "symbol": "EDZ", "name": "Direxion Daily MSCI Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.137, "architecture_energy": 34.005, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.04, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.65, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 21.84, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 31.03, "downward_expansion": 58.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 290.641333, 286.426896, 295.920068, 333.587845 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 276.0, "trend_reference": 381.022319, "distance_from_trend": -0.275633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 253.727835, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08778, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.685839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.401246, "excess_performance": -0.346579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.275633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248307, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08778, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060598, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.366858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.401246, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.931635, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3060, "relative_activity": 0.708941, "balance": 0.931635, "dry_up": 1.248233, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136185, "annualized_volatility": 0.850004, "from_high_reference": -0.649681, "from_low_reference": 2.792772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 381.022319, "fair_value_reference": 253.727835, 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277.865095, 320.636094, 362.213986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 310.0, "volume": 3771, "typical_volume": 4118.2, "trend": 411.386287, "fair_value": 251.520214, "relative_strength": -26.798786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.213297, "energy": 45.390198, "activity_lines": [ 288.1058, 282.843585, 314.628665, 354.896774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 308.440002, "volume": 4158, "typical_volume": 3934.85, "trend": 400.585852, "fair_value": 252.474473, "relative_strength": -27.571304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.179977, "energy": 33.501471, "activity_lines": [ 298.816665, 287.031464, 308.931881, 348.255078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 288.0, "volume": 10562, "typical_volume": 4254.6, "trend": 390.756258, "fair_value": 253.19829, "relative_strength": -33.433451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.569739, "energy": 30.322992, "activity_lines": [ 297.490666, 287.703699, 302.373178, 340.991475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 276.0, "volume": 3060, "typical_volume": 4316.3, "trend": 381.022319, "fair_value": 253.727835, "relative_strength": -36.685839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.136939, "energy": 34.005246, "activity_lines": [ 290.641333, 286.426896, 295.920068, 333.587845 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }