{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99f4af57-a40c-49bb-8886-b10127a8392f", "symbol": "EXL", "name": "Exasol AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.234, "architecture_energy": 54.252, "architecture_maturity": 10.878, "architecture_confidence": 75.747, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.51, "rotation_up": 7.71, "upward_expansion": 17.19, "deceleration": 44.89, "rotation_down": 72.66, "downward_expansion": 83.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.032667, 2.127455, 2.215214, 2.211323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.0, "trend_reference": 2.249667, "distance_from_trend": -0.110979, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.627083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.238699, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.188611, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196787, "excess_performance": -0.261427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056744, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.238699, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105448, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.271886, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196787, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.6577, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29298, "relative_activity": 0.421635, "balance": 0.6577, "dry_up": 0.488605, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132308, "annualized_volatility": 0.523705, "from_high_reference": -0.428571, "from_low_reference": 0.101928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.249667, "fair_value_reference": 2.627083, "structural_low": 1.815, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.033, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.594595, "median_excess_return": -0.01402, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.329193, "worst_return": -0.233713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.007018, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.013003, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.483333, "worst_return": -0.258344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.087254, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.108422, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.375527, "worst_return": -0.40239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.172643, "energy": 11.314607, "activity_lines": [ 2.328, 2.378, 2.285929, 2.290269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.16, "volume": 14253, "typical_volume": 86251.25, "trend": 2.327667, "fair_value": 2.649904, "relative_strength": -19.707199, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.821438, "energy": 11.476552, "activity_lines": [ 2.25, 2.337818, 2.280738, 2.278785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.15, "volume": 11998, "typical_volume": 73327.15, "trend": 2.313333, "fair_value": 2.643558, "relative_strength": -18.871961, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.034283, "energy": 23.897823, "activity_lines": [ 2.200667, 2.297636, 2.274357, 2.267323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.01, "volume": 60846, "typical_volume": 74206.35, "trend": 2.293333, "fair_value": 2.636859, "relative_strength": -24.481074, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.013569, "energy": 36.932976, "activity_lines": [ 2.118, 2.235455, 2.254405, 2.247753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.0, "volume": 33664, "typical_volume": 71151.75, "trend": 2.271333, "fair_value": 2.631314, "relative_strength": -25.801449, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.11445, "energy": 49.485109, "activity_lines": [ 2.062, 2.176727, 2.234595, 2.228828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.0, "volume": 29298, "typical_volume": 69486.6, "trend": 2.249667, "fair_value": 2.627083, "relative_strength": -27.188611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.233642, "energy": 54.251624, "activity_lines": [ 2.032667, 2.127455, 2.215214, 2.211323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }