{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99f65816-920c-463b-b0d3-70044a9a0af0", "symbol": "SDG9", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global SDG 9 Industry, Innovation & Infrastructure UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.613, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.562, "architecture_energy": 46.683, "architecture_maturity": 2.003, "architecture_confidence": 70.438, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.0, "rotation_up": 14.24, "upward_expansion": 23.08, "deceleration": 53.48, "rotation_down": 66.64, "downward_expansion": 50.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.644334, 31.030091, 31.604262, 31.393237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.0, "trend_reference": 31.001, "distance_from_trend": -3.2e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.134436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.233368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.926688, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022427, "excess_performance": -0.148464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -3.2e-05, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051137, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.233368, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085105, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184882, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022427, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.228293, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 337, "relative_activity": 0.190573, "balance": 3.228293, "dry_up": 0.27766, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028561, "annualized_volatility": 0.156561, "from_high_reference": -0.097788, "from_low_reference": 0.366843 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.001, "fair_value_reference": 25.134436, "structural_low": 28.424999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.112117, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107514, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.308738, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057134, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.905001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 29.905001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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25.127417, "relative_strength": -7.06244, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.45132, "energy": 42.704731, "activity_lines": [ 30.599, 31.167727, 31.649881, 31.387366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.0, "volume": 337, "typical_volume": 1768.35, "trend": 31.001, "fair_value": 25.134436, "relative_strength": -6.926688, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.562187, "energy": 46.682512, "activity_lines": [ 30.644334, 31.030091, 31.604262, 31.393237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }