{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99f875a4-3524-4442-b68c-34160072ecaf", "symbol": "GELS", "name": "Gelteq Limited Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.472, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.429, "architecture_energy": 21.822, "architecture_maturity": 28.536, "architecture_confidence": 86.587, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.21, "rotation_up": 17.96, "upward_expansion": 11.07, "deceleration": 49.55, "rotation_down": 49.89, "downward_expansion": 72.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.580633, 0.622445, 0.621361, 0.64627 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.5579, "trend_reference": 0.703263, "distance_from_trend": -0.206698, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.314204, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.575485, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -46.590534, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.307902, "excess_performance": -0.495356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206698, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.575485, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095377, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.465905, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211671, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 42.402537, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 257988, "relative_activity": 0.022641, "balance": 42.402537, "dry_up": 0.052236, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.619804, "annualized_volatility": 1.448487, "from_high_reference": -0.723812, "from_low_reference": 0.441602 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.703263, "fair_value_reference": 1.314204, "structural_low": 0.387, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.102812, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.068276, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.102812, "worst_return": -0.102812, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.319149, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037606, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 2.48, "volume": 679690, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 2.3201, "volume": 130219, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"typical_volume": 11384300.05, "trend": 0.712377, "fair_value": 1.322425, "relative_strength": -49.114898, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.204412, "energy": 21.280365, "activity_lines": [ 0.590113, 0.640422, 0.629265, 0.656236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5579, "volume": 257988, "typical_volume": 11394549.05, "trend": 0.703263, "fair_value": 1.314204, "relative_strength": -46.590534, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.429172, "energy": 21.821526, "activity_lines": [ 0.580633, 0.622445, 0.621361, 0.64627 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }