{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99fab007-6cad-4314-9bab-9d4125ab8ddb", "symbol": "002719", "name": "Maiquer Group CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.932, "architecture_energy": 59.098, "architecture_maturity": 77.884, "architecture_confidence": 95.343, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 23.55, "upward_expansion": 10.48, "deceleration": 59.78, "rotation_down": 57.87, "downward_expansion": 83.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.839333, 5.997818, 6.612905, 7.170581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.86, "trend_reference": 7.844667, "distance_from_trend": -0.252996, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.493654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.843766, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.332574, "excess_performance": -0.339974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110347, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310073, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184045, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017484, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.332574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.630315, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20576309, "relative_activity": 0.626482, "balance": 0.630315, "dry_up": 0.814643, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118273, "annualized_volatility": 0.444986, "from_high_reference": -0.440306, "from_low_reference": 0.244161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.844667, "fair_value_reference": 8.493654, "structural_low": 4.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.016766, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": 0.001535, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.607692, "worst_return": -0.221249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.034621, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.017035, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.809651, "worst_return": -0.308733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008643, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011365, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.521448, "worst_return": -0.346512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.486909, "energy": 91.785705, "activity_lines": [ 6.176667, 6.655818, 7.295048, 7.758366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.68, "volume": 26711020, "typical_volume": 34494056.7, "trend": 8.143, "fair_value": 8.577628, "relative_strength": -35.627143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.389812, "energy": 90.721418, "activity_lines": [ 5.935333, 6.411636, 7.084857, 7.593828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.62, "volume": 30714721, "typical_volume": 34079811.85, "trend": 8.023333, "fair_value": 8.550321, "relative_strength": -35.788011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.748253, "energy": 81.218579, "activity_lines": [ 5.776, 6.192364, 6.888048, 7.431054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.06, "volume": 29023102, "typical_volume": 34075524.9, "trend": 7.934, "fair_value": 8.527436, "relative_strength": -28.896271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.414195, "energy": 63.650476, "activity_lines": [ 5.849333, 6.100182, 6.752, 7.304387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.86, "volume": 20576309, "typical_volume": 32844190.4, "trend": 7.844667, "fair_value": 8.493654, "relative_strength": -33.843766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.931527, "energy": 59.098347, "activity_lines": [ 5.839333, 5.997818, 6.612905, 7.170581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }