{ "ticker": { "uuid": "99fbd222-96bd-4eb1-a26c-9af2e81f99eb", "symbol": "OCS", "name": "Oculis Holding AG Ordinary shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.598, "architecture_energy": 59.401, "architecture_maturity": 54.985, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.46, "rotation_up": 26.8, "upward_expansion": 11.3, "deceleration": 56.53, "rotation_down": 51.15, "downward_expansion": 82.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.002667, 12.188909, 16.220095, 19.050645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.68, "trend_reference": 22.310833, "distance_from_trend": -0.431666, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.67344, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.78167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.554775, "excess_performance": -0.742229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.431666, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.231237, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.477817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.727826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.554775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.346319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1821803, "relative_activity": 0.669494, "balance": 0.346319, "dry_up": 0.59353, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.268351, "annualized_volatility": 1.153456, "from_high_reference": -0.632197, "from_low_reference": 0.205323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.310833, "fair_value_reference": 16.67344, "structural_low": 10.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030501, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021467, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.308664, "worst_return": -0.0725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.199887, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.109061, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199887, "worst_return": 0.199887, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.533032, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.43086, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.533032, "worst_return": 0.533032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"activity_lines": [ 11.934667, 12.258091, 16.954786, 19.694333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.68, "volume": 1821803, "typical_volume": 2721162.8, "trend": 22.310833, "fair_value": 16.67344, "relative_strength": -47.78167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.597823, "energy": 59.401047, "activity_lines": [ 12.002667, 12.188909, 16.220095, 19.050645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }