{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a027b97-e3a6-4b90-8a63-d677badc6878", "symbol": "00664R", "name": "Cathay TAIEX Daily Inversed ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.548, "architecture_energy": 38.642, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.828, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.02, "rotation_up": 27.86, "upward_expansion": 23.63, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 32.43, "downward_expansion": 59.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.692, 1.679455, 1.72919, 1.841312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.68, "trend_reference": 2.004333, "distance_from_trend": -0.161816, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.660321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.541024, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -51.265294, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.297071, "excess_performance": -0.676383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161816, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152621, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.541024, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004224, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.512653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087175, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297071, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.570105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125979004, "relative_activity": 1.044613, "balance": 0.570105, "dry_up": 1.593756, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060897, "annualized_volatility": 0.286059, "from_high_reference": -0.504425, "from_low_reference": 0.063291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.004333, "fair_value_reference": 3.660321, "structural_low": 1.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.017125, "positive_rate": 0.326087, "directional_follow_through": 0.652174, "median_excess_return": -0.028468, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.08311, "worst_return": -0.174468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.072965, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.125065, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.058626, "worst_return": -0.204082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.094595, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.103939, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.152778, "worst_return": -0.302905, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 1.644, 1.670364, 1.805714, 1.940301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.74, "volume": 160666813, "typical_volume": 112968178.75, "trend": 2.103667, "fair_value": 3.729872, "relative_strength": -51.441407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.053144, "energy": 61.373698, "activity_lines": [ 1.673333, 1.676727, 1.786524, 1.91471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.71, "volume": 172869939, "typical_volume": 112504361.0, "trend": 2.068667, "fair_value": 3.706987, "relative_strength": -52.209894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.214647, "energy": 54.61406, "activity_lines": [ 1.69, 1.678909, 1.766524, 1.889312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 309303917, "typical_volume": 118510052.5, "trend": 2.035333, "fair_value": 3.683397, "relative_strength": -51.271874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.336154, "energy": 43.103372, "activity_lines": [ 1.690667, 1.678182, 1.746381, 1.864237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.68, "volume": 125979004, "typical_volume": 120598701.45, "trend": 2.004333, "fair_value": 3.660321, "relative_strength": -51.265294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.547566, "energy": 38.642288, "activity_lines": [ 1.692, 1.679455, 1.72919, 1.841312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }