{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a08dceb-57d7-44c3-ac5c-715525c5d7c7", "symbol": "BVXP", "name": "Bioventix PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.854, "architecture_energy": 62.968, "architecture_maturity": 12.361, "architecture_confidence": 88.554, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.0, "rotation_up": 10.36, "upward_expansion": 13.37, "deceleration": 37.68, "rotation_down": 73.3, "downward_expansion": 91.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 1523.0, 1564.636364, 1615.491867, 1620.773768 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1510.0, "trend_reference": 1640.424951, "distance_from_trend": -0.079507, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3082.892087, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.5102, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.023017, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.111433, "excess_performance": -0.162668, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058141, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.5102, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031058, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.26023, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003106, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111433, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.012098, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64402, "relative_activity": 1.393725, "balance": 0.012098, "dry_up": 1.349891, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077178, "annualized_volatility": 0.386702, "from_high_reference": -0.407407, "from_low_reference": 0.161972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1640.424951, "fair_value_reference": 3082.892087, "structural_low": 1299.514697, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.013846, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.026149, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.236825, "worst_return": -0.162162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.08202, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.136973, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.136822, "worst_return": -0.190396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.16717, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.241272, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.123561, "worst_return": -0.249727, 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"fair_value": 3113.130965, "relative_strength": -26.280361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.313054, "energy": 58.868236, "activity_lines": [ 1562.666667, 1605.272727, 1638.973602, 1639.813385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1510.0, "volume": 72605, "typical_volume": 45599.95, "trend": 1651.735266, "fair_value": 3097.851534, "relative_strength": -26.760416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.810059, "energy": 63.544867, "activity_lines": [ 1537.333333, 1583.454545, 1627.436382, 1629.917979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1510.0, "volume": 64402, "typical_volume": 46208.55, "trend": 1640.424951, "fair_value": 3082.892087, "relative_strength": -26.023017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.854157, "energy": 62.968238, "activity_lines": [ 1523.0, 1564.636364, 1615.491867, 1620.773768 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }