{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a0a851a-0dd9-4631-82cb-100b021a5d31", "symbol": "9625", "name": "Itmam Consultancy Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.58, "architecture_energy": 28.186, "architecture_maturity": 56.649, "architecture_confidence": 95.707, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.1, "rotation_up": 31.09, "upward_expansion": 19.38, "deceleration": 41.18, "rotation_down": 39.7, "downward_expansion": 67.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.104667, 14.003455, 14.346095, 14.62329 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.51, "trend_reference": 15.004, "distance_from_trend": -0.099573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.305432, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.64472, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.155625, "excess_performance": -0.123796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171442, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070646, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.155625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35089, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 451, "relative_activity": 0.052743, "balance": 0.35089, "dry_up": 0.125396, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059386, "annualized_volatility": 0.385166, "from_high_reference": -0.210865, "from_low_reference": 0.107377 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.004, "fair_value_reference": 16.305432, "structural_low": 12.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093289, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 16.940001, "volume": 602865, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 18.18, "volume": 512796, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 18.98, 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"gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.35, "volume": 460, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.35, "volume": 580, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.35, "volume": 775, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.79, "volume": 2141, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.9, "volume": 922, "typical_volume": 8711.05, "trend": 15.087, "fair_value": 16.340375, "relative_strength": -0.629054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.372589, "energy": 25.973722, "activity_lines": [ 14.250667, 14.151091, 14.45719, 14.725032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.51, "volume": 451, "typical_volume": 8550.9, "trend": 15.004, "fair_value": 16.305432, "relative_strength": -11.64472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.580069, "energy": 28.186489, "activity_lines": [ 14.104667, 14.003455, 14.346095, 14.62329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }