{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a0e742d-b55a-4c83-8696-3b8738c37c0b", "symbol": "000839", "name": "CITIC Guoan Information Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.711, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.675, "architecture_energy": 28.707, "architecture_maturity": 41.834, "architecture_confidence": 50.771, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.6, "rotation_up": 27.22, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 63.54, "rotation_down": 38.44, "downward_expansion": 65.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.683333, 2.641818, 2.787095, 2.906065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.91, "trend_reference": 2.995, "distance_from_trend": -0.028381, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.666987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.372808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010417, "excess_performance": 0.003017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028381, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006304, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091119, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010417, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.900455, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 965722505, "relative_activity": 2.306996, "balance": 1.900455, "dry_up": 1.491134, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104679, "annualized_volatility": 0.511363, "from_high_reference": -0.316901, "from_low_reference": 0.25431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.995, "fair_value_reference": 2.666987, "structural_low": 2.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.050459, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.007688, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.359649, "worst_return": -0.10177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004587, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.006957, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.247619, "worst_return": -0.078947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.052158, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.567164, "worst_return": -0.106557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100719, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.17301, "active": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.634362, "energy": 81.773025, "activity_lines": [ 2.506667, 2.644, 2.865333, 2.957978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.47, "volume": 478924928, "typical_volume": 478160906.45, "trend": 2.981333, "fair_value": 2.660321, "relative_strength": -14.567287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.775616, "energy": 73.164139, "activity_lines": [ 2.469333, 2.584182, 2.811714, 2.924602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.77, "volume": 866825200, "typical_volume": 425886521.85, "trend": 2.986, "fair_value": 2.663077, "relative_strength": -2.407937, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.358626, "energy": 47.011673, "activity_lines": [ 2.557333, 2.596545, 2.790667, 2.910968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.91, "volume": 965722505, "typical_volume": 418606099.6, "trend": 2.995, "fair_value": 2.666987, "relative_strength": -2.372808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.675105, "energy": 28.707312, "activity_lines": [ 2.683333, 2.641818, 2.787095, 2.906065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }