{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a0fda56-085d-4979-816e-a15dcb2665ae", "symbol": "00653L", "name": "Fubon NIFTY 2X Leveraged Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 87.432, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.808, "architecture_energy": 13.821, "architecture_maturity": 14.816, "architecture_confidence": 52.569, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.83, "rotation_up": 38.67, "upward_expansion": 35.24, "deceleration": 38.24, "rotation_down": 19.08, "downward_expansion": 43.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.369333, 46.918909, 46.412952, 46.801462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 48.619999, "trend_reference": 48.353667, "distance_from_trend": 0.005508, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.093141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.117495, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.243758, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.10625, "excess_performance": -0.485562, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005508, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.117495, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024968, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103782, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.605758, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1489091, "relative_activity": 0.991509, "balance": 0.605758, "dry_up": 0.763482, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039094, "annualized_volatility": 0.343396, "from_high_reference": -0.195033, "from_low_reference": 0.191375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.353667, "fair_value_reference": 55.093141, "structural_low": 40.810001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.018919, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.018463, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.086634, "worst_return": -0.149884, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058394, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020099, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.10655, "worst_return": -0.134593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.043449, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.035843, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.062045, "worst_return": 0.012227, "sufficient": false }, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058515, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056604, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036238, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": 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45.955905, 47.342882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.099998, "volume": 805170, "typical_volume": 1723439.95, "trend": 49.481, "fair_value": 55.141859, "relative_strength": -35.847083, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.590332, "energy": 16.702028, "activity_lines": [ 46.882666, 46.23709, 46.026714, 47.165828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.080002, "volume": 1158211, "typical_volume": 1653844.95, "trend": 49.048667, "fair_value": 55.117756, "relative_strength": -39.068679, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.636974, "energy": 16.946592, "activity_lines": [ 46.321333, 46.085636, 45.939905, 46.881892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.880001, "volume": 1134050, "typical_volume": 1555660.0, "trend": 48.698, "fair_value": 55.099679, "relative_strength": -33.535056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.909384, "energy": 5.324509, "activity_lines": [ 46.784, 46.455636, 46.146286, 46.806495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.619999, "volume": 1489091, "typical_volume": 1501843.25, "trend": 48.353667, "fair_value": 55.093141, "relative_strength": -33.243758, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.808159, "energy": 13.821405, "activity_lines": [ 47.369333, 46.918909, 46.412952, 46.801462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }