{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a10c76b-4d06-4688-9674-dd9d28c50802", "symbol": "IBIC", "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS OCT 2026 TERM TIPS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.183, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.812, "architecture_energy": 18.846, "architecture_maturity": 17.506, "architecture_confidence": 83.173, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.62, "rotation_up": 32.31, "upward_expansion": 24.04, "deceleration": 49.78, "rotation_down": 18.08, "downward_expansion": 46.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.591667, 25.569996, 25.568991, 25.604983 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.6, "trend_reference": 25.625913, "distance_from_trend": -0.001011, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.445834, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047213, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.740056, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.00075, "excess_performance": -0.124875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001011, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001236, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047213, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002479, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004049, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00075, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.354272, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94831, "relative_activity": 0.917936, "balance": 3.354272, "dry_up": 1.742269, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002522, "annualized_volatility": 0.030683, "from_high_reference": -0.013487, "from_low_reference": 0.01747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.625913, "fair_value_reference": 24.445834, "structural_low": 25.380724, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"direction": -36.796392, "energy": 19.893115, "activity_lines": [ 25.551445, 25.535931, 25.581381, 25.609476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.59, "volume": 338229, "typical_volume": 99604.4, "trend": 25.619769, "fair_value": 24.430445, "relative_strength": -7.27649, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.58683, "energy": 20.133927, "activity_lines": [ 25.568039, 25.54755, 25.575893, 25.607758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.6, "volume": 68778, "typical_volume": 100904.0, "trend": 25.623239, "fair_value": 24.438191, "relative_strength": -7.932816, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.021517, "energy": 25.014282, "activity_lines": [ 25.582667, 25.559631, 25.572024, 25.606482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.6, "volume": 94831, "typical_volume": 103308.95, "trend": 25.625913, "fair_value": 24.445834, "relative_strength": -10.740056, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.812247, "energy": 18.846468, "activity_lines": [ 25.591667, 25.569996, 25.568991, 25.604983 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }