{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a25f415-5e6b-43d1-9b4b-4adf037d5cff", "symbol": "XDEM", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Momentum UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.679, "architecture_energy": 26.08, "architecture_maturity": 66.527, "architecture_confidence": 88.263, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.88, "rotation_up": 18.98, "upward_expansion": 53.69, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 34.48, "downward_expansion": 19.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 7165.4, 7297.981818, 7237.080952, 7018.255914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7213.0, "trend_reference": 6746.883333, "distance_from_trend": 0.069086, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5417.743909, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.331366, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.109506, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.17466, "excess_performance": 0.123425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069166, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.331366, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031095, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.17466, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.302511, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92814, "relative_activity": 1.455358, "balance": 1.302511, "dry_up": 1.026308, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045123, "annualized_volatility": 0.19956, "from_high_reference": -0.102531, "from_low_reference": 0.269224 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6746.883333, "fair_value_reference": 5417.743909, "structural_low": 5743.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.016284, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.006745, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067479, "worst_return": -0.083085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.052941, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.005936, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.134385, "worst_return": -0.043748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081778, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.063255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228352, "worst_return": -0.147813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"energy": 29.706865, "activity_lines": [ 7291.4, 7393.945455, 7201.852381, 6963.04086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7042.0, "volume": 55176, "typical_volume": 61536.2, "trend": 6715.283333, "fair_value": 5395.468268, "relative_strength": 1.054267, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.90754, "energy": 28.385581, "activity_lines": [ 7178.733333, 7329.054545, 7213.759524, 6986.145161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7213.0, "volume": 92814, "typical_volume": 63774.0, "trend": 6746.883333, "fair_value": 5417.743909, "relative_strength": 3.109506, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.679342, "energy": 26.079991, "activity_lines": [ 7165.4, 7297.981818, 7237.080952, 7018.255914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }