{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a320eae-4d70-431b-ac76-2e3ec3b94251", "symbol": "002759", "name": "Tonze New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.353, "architecture_energy": 88.091, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.051, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 8.86, "upward_expansion": 21.85, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 80.45, "downward_expansion": 97.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.448667, 18.484909, 23.927286, 27.228667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.59, "trend_reference": 31.591, "distance_from_trend": -0.47485, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.799953, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050003, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.940949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.56018, "excess_performance": -0.56758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.47485, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050003, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.453107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.449409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.704068, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.56018, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.511238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 210893684, "relative_activity": 1.092547, "balance": 0.511238, "dry_up": 0.945964, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225901, "annualized_volatility": 0.820057, "from_high_reference": -0.703644, "from_low_reference": 0.839246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.591, "fair_value_reference": 15.799953, "structural_low": 11.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.025871, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.014998, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.251761, "worst_return": -0.415897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.051341, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0563, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.650264, "worst_return": -0.354137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.208375, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.043789, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 2.057665, "worst_return": -0.39622, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 199140909.9, "trend": 35.005333, "fair_value": 15.763743, "relative_strength": -32.916603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.049077, "energy": 87.63688, "activity_lines": [ 23.967334, 26.281273, 29.905667, 32.173871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.38, "volume": 26398107, "typical_volume": 189588326.65, "trend": 34.409, "fair_value": 15.767284, "relative_strength": -49.85371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.161278, "energy": 95.374002, "activity_lines": [ 20.476667, 23.639273, 28.214238, 30.843204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.58, "volume": 233646130, "typical_volume": 192970659.4, "trend": 33.750667, "fair_value": 15.767978, "relative_strength": -52.940378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.449294, "energy": 94.932117, "activity_lines": [ 17.534667, 21.270909, 26.559191, 29.499398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.55, "volume": 259457296, "typical_volume": 193185781.9, "trend": 32.585667, "fair_value": 15.777808, "relative_strength": -48.957712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.659444, "energy": 91.539335, "activity_lines": [ 15.818667, 19.494364, 25.093143, 28.260645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.59, "volume": 210893684, "typical_volume": 193029406.4, "trend": 31.591, "fair_value": 15.799953, "relative_strength": -44.940949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.352875, "energy": 88.090913, "activity_lines": [ 15.448667, 18.484909, 23.927286, 27.228667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }