{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a373258-741a-4358-be26-e544c2920982", "symbol": "EXE", "name": "Extendicare Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.219, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.933, "architecture_energy": 38.688, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.199, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.66, "rotation_up": 43.95, "upward_expansion": 69.65, "deceleration": 62.62, "rotation_down": 29.45, "downward_expansion": 19.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.476934, 35.760821, 34.498451, 32.718192 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.439999, "trend_reference": 30.102779, "distance_from_trend": 0.077641, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.005637, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.31621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.547916, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.360729, "excess_performance": 0.240308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077641, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.196016, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.31621, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.553094, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.195479, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.378941, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.360729, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675638, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3310300, "relative_activity": 2.017535, "balance": 0.675638, "dry_up": 1.45711, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075052, "annualized_volatility": 0.317447, "from_high_reference": -0.170177, "from_low_reference": 1.611699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.102779, "fair_value_reference": 14.005637, "structural_low": 22.149546, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.003352, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.004978, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.383721, "worst_return": -0.097624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.115945, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.078862, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.509282, "worst_return": -0.14839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.065388, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.038794, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.053691, "worst_return": -0.121385, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 70.744904, "energy": 83.911542, "activity_lines": [ 37.668145, 36.236893, 34.188454, 32.143021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.48, "volume": 2527200, "typical_volume": 1553765.0, "trend": 29.74525, "fair_value": 13.837452, "relative_strength": 36.54143, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.260991, "energy": 59.234467, "activity_lines": [ 37.087428, 36.290206, 34.510236, 32.544337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.439999, "volume": 3310300, "typical_volume": 1640765.0, "trend": 30.102779, "fair_value": 14.005637, "relative_strength": 19.547916, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.932623, "energy": 38.687836, "activity_lines": [ 35.476934, 35.760821, 34.498451, 32.718192 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }