{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a420fee-279a-4d2f-9c01-f3d817a7d9b8", "symbol": "PTY", "name": "PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 79.039, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.287, "architecture_energy": 20.606, "architecture_maturity": 14.225, "architecture_confidence": 84.156, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.13, "rotation_up": 25.53, "upward_expansion": 8.16, "deceleration": 45.61, "rotation_down": 41.21, "downward_expansion": 69.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.78406, 11.798236, 11.80092, 11.831193 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.84, "trend_reference": 11.938075, "distance_from_trend": -0.008215, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.802365, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.204892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04703, "excess_performance": -0.172655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015142, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003189, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142049, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003293, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04703, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.102532, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7842680, "relative_activity": 1.480691, "balance": 1.102532, "dry_up": 1.114902, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018696, "annualized_volatility": 0.104428, "from_high_reference": -0.12373, "from_low_reference": 0.053139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.938075, "fair_value_reference": 11.802365, "structural_low": 11.242579, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.012297, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.015105, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.14224, "worst_return": -0.081704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035841, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.041801, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066505, "worst_return": -0.068392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017944, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.077417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105536, "worst_return": 0.012207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00859, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022521, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031246, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004882, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040883, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", 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"fair_value": 11.774268, "relative_strength": -12.829243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.45063, "energy": 14.182009, "activity_lines": [ 11.865937, 11.805536, 11.809253, 11.885276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.84, "volume": 6352494, "typical_volume": 5630432.45, "trend": 11.988354, "fair_value": 11.782567, "relative_strength": -12.04532, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.651825, "energy": 16.210406, "activity_lines": [ 11.879735, 11.812723, 11.811639, 11.874993 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.69, "volume": 4881729, "typical_volume": 5470755.8, "trend": 11.972958, "fair_value": 11.7882, "relative_strength": -12.269013, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.343985, "energy": 20.650837, "activity_lines": [ 11.828495, 11.796609, 11.801918, 11.855745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.71, "volume": 4544011, "typical_volume": 5268861.15, "trend": 11.957599, "fair_value": 11.79453, "relative_strength": -12.61633, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.864868, "energy": 20.972088, "activity_lines": [ 11.782185, 11.785954, 11.795301, 11.83878 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.84, "volume": 7842680, "typical_volume": 5296633.65, "trend": 11.938075, "fair_value": 11.802365, "relative_strength": -14.204892, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.286728, "energy": 20.605916, "activity_lines": [ 11.78406, 11.798236, 11.80092, 11.831193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }