{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a421924-59a3-4d42-b7e1-d25ff28bd4bf", "symbol": "LGIH", "name": "LGI Homes", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.063, "architecture_energy": 33.015, "architecture_maturity": 55.404, "architecture_confidence": 61.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.75, "rotation_up": 37.11, "upward_expansion": 63.69, "deceleration": 67.94, "rotation_down": 25.35, "downward_expansion": 16.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.354, 58.919455, 54.884952, 52.249312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.04, "trend_reference": 50.604, "distance_from_trend": 0.186467, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.241571, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.251759, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.632677, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.015562, "excess_performance": -0.171892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.186467, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072823, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.251759, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208334, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026327, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.26296, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.015562, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.078819, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2487350, "relative_activity": 1.245371, "balance": 2.078819, "dry_up": 0.849383, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109626, "annualized_volatility": 0.63619, "from_high_reference": -0.136115, "from_low_reference": 0.789568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.604, "fair_value_reference": 80.241571, "structural_low": 33.55, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011913, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.024955, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.078982, "worst_return": -0.134371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.148322, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.14987, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.290769, "worst_return": -0.195526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.113939, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.163006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198757, "worst_return": -0.185722, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.329194, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.409986, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.121981, "worst_return": -0.403545, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07032, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.382394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086577, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131129, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.168042, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.154462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.43712, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222104, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130517, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.161199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 118.15, "volume": 899989, "typical_volume": 879893.0, "trend": 119.656333, "fair_value": 121.868846, "relative_strength": -5.069479, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.503629, 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48.917333, "fair_value": 82.206378, "relative_strength": -0.177147, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.50968, "energy": 80.915648, "activity_lines": [ 60.669333, 56.525455, 51.156095, 50.015785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.48, "volume": 1211984, "typical_volume": 2165214.6, "trend": 49.384333, "fair_value": 81.715032, "relative_strength": 2.721567, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.420736, "energy": 74.434723, "activity_lines": [ 60.295333, 57.533455, 52.181143, 50.632731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.16, "volume": 1481539, "typical_volume": 2165013.4, "trend": 49.95, "fair_value": 81.223237, "relative_strength": 7.744044, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.763213, "energy": 51.087695, "activity_lines": [ 60.186, 58.632182, 53.334857, 51.327935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.57, "volume": 1604940, "typical_volume": 2097213.2, "trend": 50.378667, "fair_value": 80.709647, "relative_strength": -2.35501, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.242512, "energy": 34.177259, "activity_lines": [ 57.982667, 58.355455, 53.881143, 51.626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.04, "volume": 2487350, "typical_volume": 1997276.5, "trend": 50.604, "fair_value": 80.241571, "relative_strength": 2.632677, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.062636, "energy": 33.014817, "activity_lines": [ 58.354, 58.919455, 54.884952, 52.249312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }