{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a46cc60-2cd4-4018-a7c4-8318e07d9155", "symbol": "AZN", "name": "AstraZeneca PLC", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.205, "architecture_energy": 80.64, "architecture_maturity": 14.276, "architecture_confidence": 80.724, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.62, "rotation_up": 11.37, "upward_expansion": 19.67, "deceleration": 34.2, "rotation_down": 80.19, "downward_expansion": 93.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 1592.507401, 1652.432702, 1692.707971, 1719.81421 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1518.5, "trend_reference": 1742.306548, "distance_from_trend": -0.128454, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1550.896037, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.020889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.74121, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120753, "excess_performance": -0.182248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128454, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002714, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.020889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114935, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120753, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.248765, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6887345, "relative_activity": 4.442465, "balance": 0.248765, "dry_up": 2.152921, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061251, "annualized_volatility": 0.300141, "from_high_reference": -0.211374, "from_low_reference": 0.11339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1742.306548, "fair_value_reference": 1550.896037, "structural_low": 1457.350985, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.033939, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.000551, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.121647, "worst_return": -0.041145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09199, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005453, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.173734, "worst_return": 0.010799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.181578, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.009454, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.249094, "worst_return": -0.032009, "sufficient": false }, { 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.544954, "energy": 53.552086, "activity_lines": [ 1680.480945, 1704.325913, 1726.599273, 1743.52037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1616.795313, "volume": 2963442, "typical_volume": 1262897.55, "trend": 1750.10739, "fair_value": 1550.853341, "relative_strength": -13.061431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.933354, "energy": 69.485031, "activity_lines": [ 1645.803236, 1686.077021, 1713.941006, 1734.756622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1518.5, "volume": 6887345, "typical_volume": 1550343.15, "trend": 1742.306548, "fair_value": 1550.896037, "relative_strength": -19.74121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.204619, "energy": 80.640353, "activity_lines": [ 1592.507401, 1652.432702, 1692.707971, 1719.81421 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }