{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a4eb67c-55dd-4901-a53a-a0c8b08213e9", "symbol": "600963", "name": "Yueyang Forest & Paper Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.885, "architecture_energy": 55.52, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.725, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.57, "rotation_up": 27.69, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.9, "rotation_down": 46.61, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.253333, 3.232909, 3.578905, 3.965075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.31, "trend_reference": 4.427, "distance_from_trend": -0.252315, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.826738, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.314237, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.57375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.423345, "excess_performance": -0.380141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252315, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.314237, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255737, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169479, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.423345, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.645194, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150837766, "relative_activity": 1.189281, "balance": 0.645194, "dry_up": 1.423739, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092726, "annualized_volatility": 0.370395, "from_high_reference": -0.503748, "from_low_reference": 0.133562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.427, "fair_value_reference": 4.826738, "structural_low": 2.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.008404, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.00632, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.348774, "worst_return": -0.216263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.046656, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.066873, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.28046, "worst_return": -0.240165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.172414, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.117894, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.295213, "worst_return": -0.237947, "sufficient": true }, { 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4.547333, "fair_value": 4.899839, "relative_strength": -28.536328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.74139, "energy": 81.99881, "activity_lines": [ 3.114667, 3.332, 3.821571, 4.203183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.16, "volume": 189886449, "typical_volume": 136699830.8, "trend": 4.511, "fair_value": 4.874193, "relative_strength": -27.782113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.668365, "energy": 66.744294, "activity_lines": [ 3.122, 3.257636, 3.716333, 4.113677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.37, "volume": 163920034, "typical_volume": 129315729.2, "trend": 4.472333, "fair_value": 4.85104, "relative_strength": -22.747726, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.175121, "energy": 63.62374, "activity_lines": [ 3.209333, 3.243455, 3.645238, 4.040065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.31, "volume": 150837766, "typical_volume": 126831031.8, "trend": 4.427, "fair_value": 4.826738, "relative_strength": -25.57375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.884771, "energy": 55.519669, "activity_lines": [ 3.253333, 3.232909, 3.578905, 3.965075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }