{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a510db0-26c4-476e-8f42-ff30401c8718", "symbol": "AM3", "name": "Amara Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.574, "architecture_energy": 42.487, "architecture_maturity": 70.021, "architecture_confidence": 92.338, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.04, "rotation_up": 23.67, "upward_expansion": 5.75, "deceleration": 54.37, "rotation_down": 51.02, "downward_expansion": 79.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.004, 0.004136, 0.004452, 0.005054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.004, "trend_reference": 0.00615, "distance_from_trend": -0.349593, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.005904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.322476, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.212109, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.555556, "excess_performance": -0.619261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.349593, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208155, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.322476, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.472121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143223, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.555556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.102507, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4203588, "relative_activity": 0.269204, "balance": 1.102507, "dry_up": 0.236991, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.25, "annualized_volatility": 0.72708, "from_high_reference": -0.789474, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.00615, "fair_value_reference": 0.005904, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.087121, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.094646, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 1.571429, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.194444, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.155949, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.077355, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.202369, "energy": 45.465947, "activity_lines": [ 0.004333, 0.0045, 0.004914, 0.005697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.004, "volume": 3814239, "typical_volume": 20693578.55, "trend": 0.006567, "fair_value": 0.006006, "relative_strength": -45.061196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.074469, "energy": 46.435711, "activity_lines": [ 0.0042, 0.004382, 0.004764, 0.005523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.004, "volume": 6594482, "typical_volume": 19353847.2, "trend": 0.006417, "fair_value": 0.005974, "relative_strength": -44.753156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.225244, "energy": 49.536437, "activity_lines": [ 0.004067, 0.004282, 0.004643, 0.005357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.004, "volume": 190000, "typical_volume": 16573603.85, "trend": 0.006283, "fair_value": 0.005936, "relative_strength": -45.699113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.247787, "energy": 46.431985, "activity_lines": [ 0.004, 0.0042, 0.00454, 0.005201 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.004, "volume": 4203588, "typical_volume": 15614858.65, "trend": 0.00615, "fair_value": 0.005904, "relative_strength": -47.212109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.573742, "energy": 42.487123, "activity_lines": [ 0.004, 0.004136, 0.004452, 0.005054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }