{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a516d2a-35d0-4b94-926e-bd69576c4f54", "symbol": "AGAIN", "name": "Cloudia Research S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.424, "architecture_energy": 85.303, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.92, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.0, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 43.79, "downward_expansion": 81.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.658, 0.658, 0.684981, 0.729959 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.658, "trend_reference": 0.804433, "distance_from_trend": -0.182033, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.061254, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.680777, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.858656, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.338693, "excess_performance": -0.509585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182033, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163588, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.680777, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038885, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.478587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.338693, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022913, "annualized_volatility": 0.343378, "from_high_reference": -0.664286, "from_low_reference": 0.009202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.804433, "fair_value_reference": 2.061254, "structural_low": 0.652, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051724, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.038005, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.145455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.216925, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.291299, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.119266, "worst_return": -0.314583, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.39633, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.5504, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.39633, "worst_return": -0.39633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03871, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.172662, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.39633, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-22", "close": 2.85, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": null, 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80.401987, "activity_lines": [ 0.658, 0.6612, 0.708986, 0.763725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.658, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 28550.0, "trend": 0.8319, "fair_value": 2.08189, "relative_strength": -48.266924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.652722, "energy": 77.972772, "activity_lines": [ 0.658, 0.658582, 0.699919, 0.751598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.658, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25600.0, "trend": 0.8195, "fair_value": 2.071496, "relative_strength": -47.422118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.646103, "energy": 82.171891, "activity_lines": [ 0.658, 0.658, 0.691862, 0.740378 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.658, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24150.0, "trend": 0.804433, "fair_value": 2.061254, "relative_strength": -47.858656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.423855, "energy": 85.302559, "activity_lines": [ 0.658, 0.658, 0.684981, 0.729959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }