{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a538f92-272b-432c-959b-65c4239a1fb2", "symbol": "MNC", "name": "MERINOCO FPO [MNC]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.214, "architecture_energy": 52.527, "architecture_maturity": 30.104, "architecture_confidence": 80.965, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.3, "rotation_up": 13.08, "upward_expansion": 9.33, "deceleration": 41.99, "rotation_down": 68.74, "downward_expansion": 87.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.081467, 0.085855, 0.095862, 0.098604 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.08, "trend_reference": 0.1034, "distance_from_trend": -0.226306, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.162925, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.508976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.607595, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304348, "excess_performance": -0.368053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.226306, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113967, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.508976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231206, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.356076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321337, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.642265, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67, "relative_activity": 0.001275, "balance": 6.642265, "dry_up": 0.3378, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.256731, "annualized_volatility": 0.993498, "from_high_reference": -0.703704, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1034, "fair_value_reference": 0.162925, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075556, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.076219, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.04, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.36, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.419375, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.36, "worst_return": -0.36, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.24, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 0.465, "volume": 325120, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"typical_volume": 50891.15, "trend": 0.110867, "fair_value": 0.166584, "relative_strength": -26.999245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.614684, "energy": 53.7606, "activity_lines": [ 0.091667, 0.101273, 0.103586, 0.105383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.086, "volume": 20000, "typical_volume": 51591.35, "trend": 0.1089, "fair_value": 0.165689, "relative_strength": -29.457555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.808724, "energy": 52.285023, "activity_lines": [ 0.089333, 0.096818, 0.101938, 0.103778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.08, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 52141.35, "trend": 0.106733, "fair_value": 0.164747, "relative_strength": -33.494246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.7, "energy": 52.965012, "activity_lines": [ 0.085933, 0.091982, 0.099786, 0.101914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.08, "volume": 20950, "typical_volume": 53133.45, "trend": 0.104567, "fair_value": 0.163826, "relative_strength": -34.287919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.213698, "energy": 48.790813, "activity_lines": [ 0.0832, 0.088509, 0.097729, 0.100189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.08, "volume": 67, "typical_volume": 52558.5, "trend": 0.1034, "fair_value": 0.162925, "relative_strength": -35.607595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.214124, "energy": 52.527225, "activity_lines": [ 0.081467, 0.085855, 0.095862, 0.098604 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }