{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a5709ef-a36c-4803-9c64-f6858eb08a67", "symbol": "NTES", "name": "NetEase, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.667, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.371, "architecture_energy": 46.439, "architecture_maturity": 17.176, "architecture_confidence": 75.4, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.68, "rotation_up": 59.64, "upward_expansion": 82.18, "deceleration": 59.85, "rotation_down": 19.58, "downward_expansion": 6.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.066667, 111.963636, 107.995477, 105.56241 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 114.0, "trend_reference": 103.990142, "distance_from_trend": 0.096258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 95.727812, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.190876, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.836155, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108954, "excess_performance": -0.065293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096258, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.190876, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140015, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086909, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108954, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 35.3, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 35.3, "dry_up": 2.661623, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055107, "annualized_volatility": 0.282949, "from_high_reference": -0.135229, "from_low_reference": 0.234111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 103.990142, "fair_value_reference": 95.727812, "structural_low": 92.374206, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003846, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.005206, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.182157, "worst_return": -0.129979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062041, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.043276, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.088746, "worst_return": -0.126923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.092214, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.085176, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.24577, "worst_return": -0.236442, "sufficient": true }, 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4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.914614, "energy": 57.209273, "activity_lines": [ 107.419115, 104.72208, 101.782231, 102.403446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 112.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.05, "trend": 104.893015, "fair_value": 94.928977, "relative_strength": -19.797632, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.848494, "energy": 66.850196, "activity_lines": [ 109.133333, 106.495181, 102.899794, 102.846672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 114.0, "volume": 339, "typical_volume": 17.0, "trend": 104.788607, "fair_value": 95.100604, "relative_strength": -16.861081, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.88694, "energy": 62.19733, "activity_lines": [ 111.066667, 108.293145, 104.152255, 103.43422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 115.0, "volume": 279, "typical_volume": 30.95, "trend": 104.717533, "fair_value": 95.292856, "relative_strength": -13.966358, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.040005, "energy": 67.467815, "activity_lines": [ 112.666667, 109.997118, 105.42779, 104.093019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.0, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 31.95, "trend": 104.395881, "fair_value": 95.394246, "relative_strength": -21.210635, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.229629, "energy": 39.041482, "activity_lines": [ 110.933333, 109.761706, 105.755138, 104.175759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 116.0, "volume": 88, "typical_volume": 36.35, "trend": 104.111025, "fair_value": 95.549078, "relative_strength": -13.308896, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.012344, "energy": 53.106727, "activity_lines": [ 112.6, 111.187031, 107.010212, 104.924412 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 114.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 36.35, "trend": 103.990142, "fair_value": 95.727812, "relative_strength": -16.836155, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.370787, "energy": 46.439499, "activity_lines": [ 113.066667, 111.963636, 107.995477, 105.56241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }