{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9a5a5805-1198-4a35-a6c5-36fbd7659d45",
    "symbol": "ASC",
    "name": "Ardmore Shpng",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 33.079,
    "architecture_energy": 20.219,
    "architecture_maturity": 25.658,
    "architecture_confidence": 67.018,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.68,
        "rotation_up": 46.27,
        "upward_expansion": 66.43,
        "deceleration": 56.84,
        "rotation_down": 20.01,
        "downward_expansion": 12.09
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        16.675333,
        16.349455,
        16.564534,
        16.247841
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 16.71,
    "trend_reference": 15.51684,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.076895,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 13.305493,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255872,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 8.670071,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.30969,
    "excess_performance": 0.184065,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.076895,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.118041,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.255872,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.230161,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.086701,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.328438,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.30969,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.510698,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3045810,
      "relative_activity": 0.991695,
      "balance": 0.510698,
      "dry_up": 0.913321,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.097888,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.49883,
      "from_high_reference": -0.145304,
      "from_low_reference": 0.716279
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 15.51684,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.305493,
      "structural_low": 12.525713,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.012105,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.454545,
        "median_excess_return": -0.02808,
        "regime_survival": 0.363636,
        "best_return": 0.365576,
        "worst_return": -0.312394,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.054124,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.102332,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.493599,
        "worst_return": -0.257911,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.137035,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.038938,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 1.00569,
        "worst_return": -0.371894,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.14504,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.026534,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.770216,
        "worst_return": -0.480137,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.469138,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.130367,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.050459,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.0515,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.332306,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.123651,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.04095,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "return": -0.032407,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02226,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.295315,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 3296936.6,
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        "fair_value": 13.2044,
        "relative_strength": 6.161962,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 2.197453,
        "energy": 15.555023,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.63,
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          15.900528
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 16.61,
        "volume": 2335087,
        "typical_volume": 3193164.55,
        "trend": 15.096437,
        "fair_value": 13.235867,
        "relative_strength": 14.39528,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 13.639967,
        "energy": 11.911384,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.910667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 17.39,
        "volume": 3245460,
        "typical_volume": 3106360.5,
        "trend": 15.337877,
        "fair_value": 13.271725,
        "relative_strength": 17.697047,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.519426,
        "energy": 21.186664,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.482,
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          16.159317
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 16.71,
        "volume": 3045810,
        "typical_volume": 3071316.8,
        "trend": 15.51684,
        "fair_value": 13.305493,
        "relative_strength": 8.670071,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.079301,
        "energy": 20.218614,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.675333,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}