{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a609432-987f-4c7c-96f1-943badd53727", "symbol": "SPHC", "name": "Amundi Core S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF EUR Hedged Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.356, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.204, "architecture_energy": 58.055, "architecture_maturity": 60.908, "architecture_confidence": 55.655, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.08, "rotation_up": 52.1, "upward_expansion": 79.62, "deceleration": 68.73, "rotation_down": 27.52, "downward_expansion": 8.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 208.453335, 207.479274, 205.777525, 201.99352 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 213.860001, "trend_reference": 197.788661, "distance_from_trend": 0.081255, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 165.554912, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291777, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.966782, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11583, "excess_performance": -0.055062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081255, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030219, "read": "Rising" 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176.960007, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.013079, "positive_rate": 0.645161, "directional_follow_through": 0.645161, "median_excess_return": 0.000887, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.063061, "worst_return": -0.117856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.050299, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.006516, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.093768, "worst_return": -0.070993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082225, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.005641, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.147991, "worst_return": 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205.429993, "volume": 111440, "typical_volume": 25985.7, "trend": 196.639484, "fair_value": 164.494997, "relative_strength": -5.660862, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.119376, "energy": 48.374592, "activity_lines": [ 206.392667, 206.459819, 203.937715, 200.374499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 204.990005, "volume": 22038, "typical_volume": 25239.4, "trend": 197.115694, "fair_value": 164.995233, "relative_strength": -6.344836, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.675665, "energy": 40.129781, "activity_lines": [ 205.990001, 206.145274, 204.483858, 200.913242 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 213.860001, "volume": 18610, "typical_volume": 25042.7, "trend": 197.788661, "fair_value": 165.554912, "relative_strength": -4.966782, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.204095, "energy": 58.054569, "activity_lines": [ 208.453335, 207.479274, 205.777525, 201.99352 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }