{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a63821e-9152-487b-8484-1ad940aa4eac", "symbol": "NORBTEAEXP", "name": "Norben Tea & Exports Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.919, "architecture_energy": 66.843, "architecture_maturity": 29.646, "architecture_confidence": 89.268, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.47, "rotation_up": 16.33, "upward_expansion": 13.45, "deceleration": 39.56, "rotation_down": 70.44, "downward_expansion": 91.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.289335, 69.117274, 72.256668, 75.57428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 64.230003, "trend_reference": 79.846334, "distance_from_trend": -0.19558, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.751923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.70137, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.268404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.213157, "excess_performance": -0.169448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19558, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01938, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.70137, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.658998, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364748, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.213157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.689927, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9344, "relative_activity": 0.479068, "balance": 0.689927, "dry_up": 0.389794, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105534, "annualized_volatility": 0.613008, "from_high_reference": -0.353498, "from_low_reference": 0.917314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 79.846334, "fair_value_reference": 37.751923, "structural_low": 58.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.054545, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.024708, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.278309, "worst_return": -0.167883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.462922, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.414127, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.794702, "worst_return": -0.175182, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.463576, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.319787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.364031, "worst_return": 0.007299, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088893, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.544634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076843, "active": false 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"close": 67.370003, "volume": 8038, "typical_volume": 19239.15, "trend": 81.894667, "fair_value": 37.003205, "relative_strength": -0.983521, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.550988, "energy": 59.22223, "activity_lines": [ 69.710669, 71.477092, 74.279001, 77.507398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.57, "volume": 10412, "typical_volume": 19295.75, "trend": 80.868667, "fair_value": 37.391475, "relative_strength": -2.701734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.561539, "energy": 53.168897, "activity_lines": [ 69.110001, 70.550183, 73.425858, 76.647742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.230003, "volume": 9344, "typical_volume": 19504.55, "trend": 79.846334, "fair_value": 37.751923, "relative_strength": -10.268404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.919132, "energy": 66.842545, "activity_lines": [ 67.289335, 69.117274, 72.256668, 75.57428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }