{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a74eeac-9e7b-4145-b8e1-013ff0a17efe", "symbol": "MPRO", "name": "MONARCH PROCAP INDEX ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.939, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.108, "architecture_energy": 31.974, "architecture_maturity": 29.322, "architecture_confidence": 48.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.89, "rotation_up": 37.92, "upward_expansion": 62.67, "deceleration": 65.83, "rotation_down": 25.1, "downward_expansion": 15.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.61348, 32.620406, 32.48239, 32.320049 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.6848, "trend_reference": 32.119741, "distance_from_trend": 0.017592, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.576936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143748, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.135411, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025134, "excess_performance": -0.100491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017592, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021249, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143748, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013123, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012899, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025134, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.595686, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88292, "relative_activity": 0.821219, "balance": 1.595686, "dry_up": 1.333402, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011139, "annualized_volatility": 0.074891, "from_high_reference": -0.009251, "from_low_reference": 0.113321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.119741, "fair_value_reference": 28.576936, "structural_low": 30.78, "invalidation": "A 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31.939621, "fair_value": 28.425749, "relative_strength": -3.857596, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.187164, "energy": 63.804645, "activity_lines": [ 32.680686, 32.58015, 32.356011, 32.204492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.6748, "volume": 64681, "typical_volume": 109724.65, "trend": 32.004217, "fair_value": 28.474744, "relative_strength": -3.195162, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.190014, "energy": 58.502844, "activity_lines": [ 32.690493, 32.616197, 32.408726, 32.251923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.4376, "volume": 88427, "typical_volume": 108105.0, "trend": 32.062236, "fair_value": 28.525098, "relative_strength": -4.775912, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.888199, "energy": 35.594758, "activity_lines": [ 32.602707, 32.597014, 32.435842, 32.279883 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.6848, "volume": 88292, "typical_volume": 107513.3, "trend": 32.119741, "fair_value": 28.576936, "relative_strength": -7.135411, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.108402, "energy": 31.974382, "activity_lines": [ 32.61348, 32.620406, 32.48239, 32.320049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }