{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a763191-351f-4013-bf5e-0101b9689c51", "symbol": "VTVT", "name": "vTv Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.719, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.835, "architecture_energy": 24.051, "architecture_maturity": 32.15, "architecture_confidence": 80.024, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.31, "rotation_up": 22.5, "upward_expansion": 7.88, "deceleration": 40.11, "rotation_down": 46.42, "downward_expansion": 76.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.179333, 33.489091, 33.689214, 34.12414 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.37, "trend_reference": 34.444333, "distance_from_trend": 0.026874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.409729, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.652053, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.170142, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.218815, "excess_performance": 0.031361, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026874, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.652053, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.202031, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011701, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030136, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.218815, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.343282, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 624763, "relative_activity": 2.007035, "balance": 1.343282, "dry_up": 1.770913, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132457, "annualized_volatility": 0.547095, "from_high_reference": -0.196136, "from_low_reference": 1.526429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.444333, "fair_value_reference": 21.409729, "structural_low": 28.75, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.042623, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.817071, "worst_return": -0.177057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044544, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.064087, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.445412, "worst_return": -0.409336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.090759, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.123039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.676546, "worst_return": -0.369112, "sufficient": 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34.674, 34.122455, 34.531024, 34.728473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.49, "volume": 273944, "typical_volume": 266954.1, "trend": 35.0365, "fair_value": 21.295178, "relative_strength": -1.407927, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.22332, "energy": 14.530216, "activity_lines": [ 34.475667, 34.098091, 34.384786, 34.626247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.88, "volume": 417577, "typical_volume": 278070.25, "trend": 34.932167, "fair_value": 21.322563, "relative_strength": 0.285104, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.198903, "energy": 13.236782, "activity_lines": [ 33.984, 33.93, 34.18431, 34.487118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.73, "volume": 580433, "typical_volume": 290182.75, "trend": 34.692833, "fair_value": 21.344114, "relative_strength": -5.422081, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.692703, "energy": 31.772258, "activity_lines": [ 32.768, 33.331, 33.804214, 34.216011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.35, "volume": 582272, "typical_volume": 288994.9, "trend": 34.451167, "fair_value": 21.367871, "relative_strength": -1.799945, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.065282, "energy": 38.087868, "activity_lines": [ 32.379333, 33.116818, 33.60069, 34.06486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.37, "volume": 624763, "typical_volume": 311286.5, "trend": 34.444333, "fair_value": 21.409729, "relative_strength": 1.170142, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.835055, "energy": 24.050902, "activity_lines": [ 33.179333, 33.489091, 33.689214, 34.12414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }