{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a892d64-0458-4a6f-93d4-cd35e45d5551", "symbol": "ZHU", "name": "BMO Equal Weight US Health Care Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.389, "architecture_energy": 70.854, "architecture_maturity": 31.127, "architecture_confidence": 75.373, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.66, "rotation_up": 69.18, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 66.01, "rotation_down": 18.99, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.779333, 48.231818, 46.394524, 45.46 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 49.369999, "trend_reference": 44.691667, "distance_from_trend": 0.10468, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.330904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166287, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.218612, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115706, "excess_performance": -0.004715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10468, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020322, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161793, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002186, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113308, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115706, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.913043, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1900, "relative_activity": 1.968912, "balance": 2.913043, "dry_up": 1.502591, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021439, "annualized_volatility": 0.153538, "from_high_reference": -0.010423, "from_low_reference": 0.264327 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.691667, "fair_value_reference": 42.330904, "structural_low": 41.470001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.007656, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.0241, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.050933, "worst_return": -0.072371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020551, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016354, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.10317, "worst_return": -0.154358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02078, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.068878, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.031882, "worst_return": -0.133244, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.343437, "energy": 60.942495, "activity_lines": [ 44.444001, 43.703274, 43.291143, 43.483726 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 47.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 940.0, "trend": 43.893426, "fair_value": 42.017476, "relative_strength": -1.674533, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 57.431396, "energy": 79.818275, "activity_lines": [ 45.406001, 44.390728, 43.648477, 43.687097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 49.490002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 885.0, "trend": 44.031283, "fair_value": 42.079847, "relative_strength": 2.7899, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 98.563162, "energy": 98.979105, "activity_lines": [ 46.927334, 45.456546, 44.227858, 44.048167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 49.200001, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 875.0, "trend": 44.184671, "fair_value": 42.134144, "relative_strength": 2.148182, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.979069, "energy": 97.377313, "activity_lines": [ 47.952001, 46.337456, 44.75181, 44.381632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.919998, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 945.0, "trend": 44.314289, "fair_value": 42.178478, "relative_strength": -0.285453, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.551643, "energy": 88.829535, "activity_lines": [ 48.240667, 46.852182, 45.133429, 44.622621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.959999, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 920.0, "trend": 44.428, "fair_value": 42.222002, "relative_strength": -0.387901, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.220025, "energy": 88.32082, "activity_lines": [ 48.338666, 47.267091, 45.504477, 44.857828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.98, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 925.0, "trend": 44.588334, "fair_value": 42.276207, "relative_strength": 2.19281, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.385893, "energy": 86.488531, "activity_lines": [ 48.559333, 47.767818, 45.947667, 45.151506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.369999, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 965.0, "trend": 44.691667, "fair_value": 42.330904, "relative_strength": -0.218612, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.388952, "energy": 70.853739, "activity_lines": [ 48.779333, 48.231818, 46.394524, 45.46 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }