{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a8d816d-0960-41ad-8d5a-f93de670ad0a", "symbol": "ISRU", "name": "Amundi Label ISR Actions USA UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.329, "architecture_energy": 69.082, "architecture_maturity": 77.814, "architecture_confidence": 76.436, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.19, "rotation_up": 54.05, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.5, "rotation_down": 29.72, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.0182, 11.984055, 11.759043, 11.452357 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.32, "trend_reference": 11.0973, "distance_from_trend": 0.11018, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.222972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.205129, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.359883, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.199377, "excess_performance": 0.146066, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.11018, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047548, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.205129, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077238, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.073599, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017842, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199377, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.374963, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10120, "relative_activity": 0.362097, "balance": 15.374963, "dry_up": 0.529709, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017564, "annualized_volatility": 0.122284, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.263849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.0973, "fair_value_reference": 10.222972, "structural_low": 9.938, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.00243, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.000929, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.00243, "worst_return": -0.00243, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032431, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 9.9339, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 9.9828, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 10.0966, "volume": 0, 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33074.3, "trend": 10.905933, "fair_value": 10.138105, "relative_strength": 10.543558, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.479051, "energy": 83.220931, "activity_lines": [ 12.004, 11.8806, 11.472252, 11.197637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.786, "volume": 6453, "typical_volume": 33150.25, "trend": 10.952533, "fair_value": 10.157959, "relative_strength": 8.023757, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.038892, "energy": 67.532735, "activity_lines": [ 11.945, 11.888218, 11.537381, 11.254415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.904, "volume": 36244, "typical_volume": 34232.55, "trend": 10.9992, "fair_value": 10.178745, "relative_strength": 8.368114, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.940088, "energy": 65.271409, "activity_lines": [ 11.921733, 11.906691, 11.607214, 11.3158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.841, "volume": 6401, "typical_volume": 34259.55, "trend": 11.045167, "fair_value": 10.198301, "relative_strength": 5.927188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.105598, "energy": 55.871715, "activity_lines": [ 11.887067, 11.904509, 11.663776, 11.37011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.32, "volume": 10120, "typical_volume": 27948.35, "trend": 11.0973, "fair_value": 10.222972, "relative_strength": 7.359883, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.328935, "energy": 69.081839, "activity_lines": [ 12.0182, 11.984055, 11.759043, 11.452357 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }