{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a96884c-0a3d-44aa-9e23-574508ef27d7", "symbol": "200553", "name": "ADAMA Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.684, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.419, "architecture_energy": 17.024, "architecture_maturity": 61.154, "architecture_confidence": 91.774, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.22, "rotation_up": 22.21, "upward_expansion": 44.97, "deceleration": 81.59, "rotation_down": 41.96, "downward_expansion": 34.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.797333, 2.837273, 2.848048, 2.801462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.79, "trend_reference": 2.717667, "distance_from_trend": 0.026616, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.4425, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142272, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.821972, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.116, "excess_performance": 0.1086, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026616, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040587, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142272, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057801, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.811562, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 957100, "relative_activity": 0.603649, "balance": 0.811562, "dry_up": 0.833413, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054866, "annualized_volatility": 0.350928, "from_high_reference": -0.111465, "from_low_reference": 0.187234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.717667, "fair_value_reference": 2.4425, "structural_low": 2.37, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.032505, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.030266, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.015766, "worst_return": -0.128603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.107061, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.142324, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.078704, "worst_return": -0.150901, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.086106, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.057972, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.036496, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015869, 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2.885818, 2.810952, 2.736086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.03, "volume": 606800, "typical_volume": 1547046.95, "trend": 2.664667, "fair_value": 2.462949, "relative_strength": -3.467854, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.38997, "energy": 39.960615, "activity_lines": [ 2.919333, 2.916364, 2.839333, 2.760688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.97, "volume": 1884700, "typical_volume": 1623676.95, "trend": 2.679, "fair_value": 2.459615, "relative_strength": -1.659933, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.773607, "energy": 39.765364, "activity_lines": [ 2.942667, 2.926364, 2.859143, 2.780387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.69, "volume": 2432600, "typical_volume": 1696374.0, "trend": 2.684667, "fair_value": 2.454744, "relative_strength": -1.907852, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.510749, "energy": 17.697154, "activity_lines": [ 2.868, 2.882, 2.849714, 2.781097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.78, "volume": 845000, "typical_volume": 1695516.2, "trend": 2.694333, "fair_value": 2.450385, "relative_strength": 1.202518, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.415114, "energy": 15.016224, "activity_lines": [ 2.832667, 2.859636, 2.848048, 2.787247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.83, "volume": 1050882, "typical_volume": 1643086.2, "trend": 2.705333, "fair_value": 2.44641, "relative_strength": 5.090812, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.813694, "energy": 17.422002, "activity_lines": [ 2.820667, 2.850909, 2.850143, 2.796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.79, "volume": 957100, "typical_volume": 1585523.75, "trend": 2.717667, "fair_value": 2.4425, "relative_strength": -0.821972, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.41888, "energy": 17.023684, "activity_lines": [ 2.797333, 2.837273, 2.848048, 2.801462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }