{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a9b29cd-de94-434c-bfdc-fdc259d3ff31", "symbol": "BOCT", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - October", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.194, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.098, "architecture_energy": 73.663, "architecture_maturity": 44.149, "architecture_confidence": 82.363, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.45, "rotation_up": 65.24, "upward_expansion": 88.95, "deceleration": 51.87, "rotation_down": 25.49, "downward_expansion": 13.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.574927, 53.276035, 52.773358, 51.988955 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 54.29, "trend_reference": 51.099157, "distance_from_trend": 0.062444, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.089201, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231367, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.12603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08863, "excess_performance": -0.036994, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026307, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231367, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008259, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08863, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.110909, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27626, "relative_activity": 0.324115, "balance": 2.110909, "dry_up": 0.335393, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012645, "annualized_volatility": 0.089904, "from_high_reference": -0.00092, "from_low_reference": 0.170215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.099157, "fair_value_reference": 44.089201, "structural_low": 46.84, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": 0.008359, "positive_rate": 0.744681, "directional_follow_through": 0.744681, "median_excess_return": -0.003188, "regime_survival": 0.87234, "best_return": 0.051843, "worst_return": -0.042204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.035347, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": -0.015688, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.102397, "worst_return": -0.023587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.066245, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.016986, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.099481, "worst_return": -0.093011, "sufficient": true }, { 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60.354786, "activity_lines": [ 52.699633, 52.618729, 51.71687, 51.106226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 53.4581, "volume": 34979, "typical_volume": 94238.15, "trend": 50.589, "fair_value": 43.662956, "relative_strength": -2.578652, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.241064, "energy": 78.228292, "activity_lines": [ 52.97574, 52.797842, 51.965465, 51.300542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.113, "volume": 45269, "typical_volume": 93387.25, "trend": 50.717023, "fair_value": 43.766974, "relative_strength": -1.623733, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.993265, "energy": 78.573356, "activity_lines": [ 53.062273, 52.88062, 52.163822, 51.463381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.9166, "volume": 24389, "typical_volume": 88519.95, "trend": 50.82231, "fair_value": 43.868263, "relative_strength": -1.354537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.612627, "energy": 74.644301, "activity_lines": [ 53.046473, 52.911093, 52.327174, 51.605289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.435, "volume": 17065, "typical_volume": 86052.9, "trend": 50.955867, "fair_value": 43.976032, "relative_strength": -1.396893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.585091, "energy": 71.525499, "activity_lines": [ 53.2057, 53.024064, 52.52123, 51.77385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.29, "volume": 27626, "typical_volume": 85235.1, "trend": 51.099157, "fair_value": 44.089201, "relative_strength": -3.12603, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.098316, "energy": 73.66255, "activity_lines": [ 53.574927, 53.276035, 52.773358, 51.988955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }