{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a9c6cfe-e27a-43cc-b211-75365484b6eb", "symbol": "EALU", "name": "WisdomTree Aluminium - EUR Daily Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.232, "architecture_energy": 35.865, "architecture_maturity": 25.815, "architecture_confidence": 72.444, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.26, "rotation_up": 25.63, "upward_expansion": 17.08, "deceleration": 65.1, "rotation_down": 51.0, "downward_expansion": 45.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.6058, 7.622164, 7.902548, 7.925432 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.777, "trend_reference": 7.855433, "distance_from_trend": -0.009985, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.38414, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218175, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.648988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.08089, "excess_performance": -0.090002, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009985, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118722, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08649, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154876, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08089, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.248685, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4442, "relative_activity": 0.407843, "balance": 19.248685, "dry_up": 0.474225, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034045, "annualized_volatility": 0.241186, "from_high_reference": -0.118454, "from_low_reference": 0.274709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.855433, "fair_value_reference": 6.38414, "structural_low": 7.056, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout 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"mixed", "direction": -36.807097, "energy": 59.972868, "activity_lines": [ 7.5772, 7.924273, 8.086952, 7.984645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.484, "volume": 2493, "typical_volume": 22927.85, "trend": 7.802867, "fair_value": 6.345159, "relative_strength": -9.199275, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.195719, "energy": 70.048658, "activity_lines": [ 7.489467, 7.806545, 8.029971, 7.965338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.504, "volume": 4051, "typical_volume": 17680.6, "trend": 7.8238, "fair_value": 6.357409, "relative_strength": -8.727454, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.519484, "energy": 69.174598, "activity_lines": [ 7.467267, 7.706982, 7.974167, 7.946056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.568, "volume": 9674, "typical_volume": 14762.85, "trend": 7.840867, "fair_value": 6.369928, "relative_strength": -8.50754, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.305243, "energy": 60.557463, "activity_lines": [ 7.502533, 7.636073, 7.927195, 7.929553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.777, "volume": 4442, "typical_volume": 10891.45, "trend": 7.855433, "fair_value": 6.38414, "relative_strength": -8.648988, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.231597, "energy": 35.865052, "activity_lines": [ 7.6058, 7.622164, 7.902548, 7.925432 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }