{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9a9edad7-e39a-41f5-8fbd-a55bdec51b2f", "symbol": "ROL", "name": "Rollins Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.434, "architecture_energy": 69.866, "architecture_maturity": 56.545, "architecture_confidence": 77.999, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 13.38, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 51.46, "rotation_down": 74.08, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.396667, 41.391636, 45.165584, 48.01033 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.74, "trend_reference": 52.044314, "distance_from_trend": -0.274849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.194269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.232837, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.692252, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.41414, "excess_performance": -0.539765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.274849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096407, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.232837, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.386923, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.41414, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.446188, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26941874, "relative_activity": 1.307898, "balance": 0.446188, "dry_up": 1.547237, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091395, "annualized_volatility": 0.337688, "from_high_reference": -0.425656, "from_low_reference": 0.038382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.044314, "fair_value_reference": 49.194269, "structural_low": 36.345, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.020468, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.034445, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.118546, "worst_return": -0.151338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.18049, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.069813, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.223151, "worst_return": -0.176988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.142032, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244467, "worst_return": 0.048124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-87.461578, "energy": 71.812096, "activity_lines": [ 42.445333, 43.893636, 47.360557, 49.982599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.97, "volume": 34850941, "typical_volume": 20112416.6, "trend": 52.795822, "fair_value": 49.206115, "relative_strength": -36.810575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.462, "energy": 71.107301, "activity_lines": [ 40.782667, 42.522727, 46.233617, 48.981673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.74, "volume": 26941874, "typical_volume": 20599363.0, "trend": 52.044314, "fair_value": 49.194269, "relative_strength": -38.692252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.433709, "energy": 69.865643, "activity_lines": [ 39.396667, 41.391636, 45.165584, 48.01033 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }