{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9aa9d6a4-fe72-4e08-b3e1-12868ea14cbc", "symbol": "ECOR", "name": "Ecora Royalties PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.851, "architecture_energy": 30.602, "architecture_maturity": 25.584, "architecture_confidence": 70.522, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.35, "rotation_up": 55.08, "upward_expansion": 64.39, "deceleration": 56.34, "rotation_down": 18.17, "downward_expansion": 14.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.013333, 138.697642, 138.76521, 138.422955 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 157.8, "trend_reference": 137.856599, "distance_from_trend": 0.144668, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.856745, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.775892, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.674765, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086777, "excess_performance": 0.020498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144668, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091447, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.775892, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050389, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.246748, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20287, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086777, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.110369, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2523441, "relative_activity": 1.286325, "balance": 1.110369, "dry_up": 1.048423, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072214, "annualized_volatility": 0.385241, "from_high_reference": -0.010038, "from_low_reference": 1.424055 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.856599, "fair_value_reference": 88.856745, "structural_low": 119.400002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.032032, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028499, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.078464, "worst_return": -0.109113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.074746, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.113082, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.344016, "worst_return": -0.230216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.060748, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.121684, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.04634, "worst_return": -0.281775, "sufficient": true }, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 127.2, "volume": 4226202, "typical_volume": 2220814.35, "trend": 134.082702, "fair_value": 88.207906, "relative_strength": 8.289296, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.629972, "energy": 10.07533, "activity_lines": [ 134.399993, 136.671024, 137.758505, 137.236609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 128.0, "volume": 2042463, "typical_volume": 2126524.65, "trend": 134.696174, "fair_value": 88.291914, "relative_strength": 7.022525, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.500481, "energy": 34.664287, "activity_lines": [ 131.83898, 134.658084, 136.842801, 136.844177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 134.8, "volume": 1260005, "typical_volume": 2028968.4, "trend": 135.496314, "fair_value": 88.400298, "relative_strength": 10.305964, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.438535, "energy": 32.449371, "activity_lines": [ 132.00882, 134.28123, 136.628048, 136.850875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 138.4, "volume": 2401047, "typical_volume": 2034028.85, "trend": 136.336457, "fair_value": 88.556095, "relative_strength": 10.986187, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.679638, "energy": 23.643069, "activity_lines": [ 133.76, 134.718656, 136.796153, 137.03821 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 157.8, "volume": 2523441, "typical_volume": 1961744.55, "trend": 137.856599, "fair_value": 88.856745, "relative_strength": 24.674765, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.851436, "energy": 30.601538, "activity_lines": [ 142.013333, 138.697642, 138.76521, 138.422955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }