{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ab1460d-b936-4fe1-97c1-78488a5ee9cf", "symbol": "AWDE", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II MSCI World PAB UCITS ETFEUR (H) Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.588, "architecture_energy": 38.694, "architecture_maturity": 44.955, "architecture_confidence": 78.733, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.72, "rotation_up": 21.02, "upward_expansion": 61.0, "deceleration": 91.74, "rotation_down": 32.43, "downward_expansion": 27.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.8664, 11.932655, 11.898048, 11.717191 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.834, "trend_reference": 11.5338, "distance_from_trend": 0.026028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.822106, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093503, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.874313, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.049113, "excess_performance": -0.121778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019686, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093503, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049113, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 45.753676, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 45.753676, "dry_up": 0.106466, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005772, "annualized_volatility": 0.119644, "from_high_reference": -0.023919, "from_low_reference": 0.143824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.5338, "fair_value_reference": 10.822106, "structural_low": 10.346, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007539, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 10.03, "volume": 68845, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 9.939, "volume": 1930, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.124, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.938, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3731.7, "trend": 11.453733, "fair_value": 10.755062, "relative_strength": -9.77932, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.420366, "energy": 85.457097, "activity_lines": [ 12.062, 12.033782, 11.739124, 11.587028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.97, "volume": 1830, "typical_volume": 3816.25, "trend": 11.4752, "fair_value": 10.770062, "relative_strength": -8.938033, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.152868, "energy": 78.163345, "activity_lines": [ 12.023067, 12.034945, 11.785181, 11.620335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.988, "volume": 870, "typical_volume": 3848.5, "trend": 11.495667, "fair_value": 10.784915, "relative_strength": -7.298535, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.293539, "energy": 78.521725, "activity_lines": [ 12.0004, 12.031964, 11.829657, 11.653419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.848, "volume": 192, "typical_volume": 3841.1, "trend": 11.509, "fair_value": 10.797723, "relative_strength": -8.027202, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.199481, "energy": 41.915324, "activity_lines": [ 11.940133, 12.000727, 11.857486, 11.676151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.834, "volume": 80, "typical_volume": 3829.05, "trend": 11.522867, "fair_value": 10.81006, "relative_strength": -8.503207, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.245094, "energy": 35.803133, "activity_lines": [ 11.8936, 11.966691, 11.880238, 11.697118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.834, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2681.6, "trend": 11.5338, "fair_value": 10.822106, "relative_strength": -10.874313, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.588396, "energy": 38.693715, "activity_lines": [ 11.8664, 11.932655, 11.898048, 11.717191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }