{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ab53982-2ae7-4690-a06c-eaec53b495d2", "symbol": "001212", "name": "Sinostone(Guangdong) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.601, "architecture_energy": 86.652, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.68, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.54, "rotation_up": 8.49, "upward_expansion": 21.76, "deceleration": 37.08, "rotation_down": 79.85, "downward_expansion": 97.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.928667, 37.767818, 43.590905, 46.091441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 35.68, "trend_reference": 48.790333, "distance_from_trend": -0.268708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.91807, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154018, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.569272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301488, "excess_performance": -0.308888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.268708, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154018, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.853961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249104, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301488, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.262266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24846047, "relative_activity": 0.99164, "balance": 0.262266, "dry_up": 1.129932, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152272, "annualized_volatility": 0.496476, "from_high_reference": -0.450231, "from_low_reference": 0.275197 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.790333, "fair_value_reference": 30.91807, "structural_low": 27.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017583, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.003356, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.225168, "worst_return": -0.08767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01331, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.020232, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.374158, "worst_return": -0.114768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.083147, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.048312, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.08987, "worst_return": -0.184316, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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32.900002, "volume": 32665251, "typical_volume": 25418952.05, "trend": 50.001333, "fair_value": 30.715606, "relative_strength": -34.48681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.245765, "energy": 92.006228, "activity_lines": [ 36.653334, 41.542546, 46.355524, 48.150946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.690001, "volume": 29444844, "typical_volume": 25060467.3, "trend": 49.291, "fair_value": 30.805208, "relative_strength": -35.453183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.064042, "energy": 92.030296, "activity_lines": [ 34.125334, 39.074546, 44.729524, 46.96957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.68, "volume": 24846047, "typical_volume": 25055508.0, "trend": 48.790333, "fair_value": 30.91807, "relative_strength": -30.569272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.601467, "energy": 86.651984, "activity_lines": [ 33.928667, 37.767818, 43.590905, 46.091441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }