{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ac022cd-aa92-4b1e-8b7f-bb80e9994b0d", "symbol": "LSF", "name": "L1 Long Short Fund Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.288, "architecture_energy": 25.487, "architecture_maturity": 57.614, "architecture_confidence": 88.012, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.49, "rotation_up": 36.71, "upward_expansion": 62.6, "deceleration": 82.49, "rotation_down": 26.61, "downward_expansion": 19.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.566, 4.587455, 4.503923, 4.401403 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.69, "trend_reference": 4.292995, "distance_from_trend": 0.092477, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.115564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.505345, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.221808, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.174335, "excess_performance": 0.11063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092477, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073737, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.505345, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057718, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.132218, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088638, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.174335, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.351146, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2174806, "relative_activity": 1.171672, "balance": 1.351146, "dry_up": 1.482707, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050746, "annualized_volatility": 0.261388, "from_high_reference": -0.042857, "from_low_reference": 0.599974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.292995, "fair_value_reference": 3.115564, "structural_low": 3.490993, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014035, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.01543, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.055555, "worst_return": -0.041791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024193, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.013679, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.081009, "worst_return": -0.070968, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.079882, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.039252, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.102486, "worst_return": -0.069293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"volume": 2497856, "typical_volume": 1897081.75, "trend": 4.27241, "fair_value": 3.101912, "relative_strength": 15.201861, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.828431, "energy": 23.648751, "activity_lines": [ 4.53, 4.565509, 4.469983, 4.374462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.69, "volume": 2174806, "typical_volume": 1856155.8, "trend": 4.292995, "fair_value": 3.115564, "relative_strength": 13.221808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.2877, "energy": 25.486528, "activity_lines": [ 4.566, 4.587455, 4.503923, 4.401403 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }