{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ac9d65d-3158-4d3d-a513-68120ed93c25", "symbol": "COFS", "name": "ChoiceOne Financial Services Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.197, "architecture_energy": 43.565, "architecture_maturity": 49.256, "architecture_confidence": 75.339, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.92, "rotation_up": 54.35, "upward_expansion": 78.87, "deceleration": 62.62, "rotation_down": 21.3, "downward_expansion": 5.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.701333, 33.399957, 32.46952, 31.521024 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.08, "trend_reference": 30.387644, "distance_from_trend": 0.121508, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.40424, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243603, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.394198, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.145912, "excess_performance": -0.041542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121508, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042584, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243603, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06175, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003942, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099833, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145912, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.813059, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 331813, "relative_activity": 0.807096, "balance": 1.813059, "dry_up": 1.092981, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06302, "annualized_volatility": 0.212229, "from_high_reference": -0.024893, "from_low_reference": 0.344007 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.387644, "fair_value_reference": 27.40424, "structural_low": 26.390313, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.006869, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.030305, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.21387, "worst_return": -0.133891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.022927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008802, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.268049, "worst_return": -0.235956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.046436, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.106956, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03762, "worst_return": -0.153579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.68135, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.232949, "energy": 64.146635, "activity_lines": [ 33.397333, 32.761524, 31.679985, 30.824329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.72, "volume": 588414, "typical_volume": 415432.2, "trend": 29.983324, "fair_value": 27.252185, "relative_strength": 1.771286, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.834239, "energy": 44.349379, "activity_lines": [ 33.265333, 32.862928, 31.885393, 31.007739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.03, "volume": 442235, "typical_volume": 414761.5, "trend": 30.170759, "fair_value": 27.329537, "relative_strength": 5.294283, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.488973, "energy": 43.686109, "activity_lines": [ 33.513333, 33.153015, 32.191802, 31.268815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.08, "volume": 331813, "typical_volume": 411119.5, "trend": 30.387644, "fair_value": 27.40424, "relative_strength": 0.394198, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.196862, "energy": 43.565484, "activity_lines": [ 33.701333, 33.399957, 32.46952, 31.521024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }