{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9acbd410-f897-41a6-929c-b0562283ec67", "symbol": "HGY", "name": "Global X Gold Yield ETF Common", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.393, "architecture_energy": 51.543, "architecture_maturity": 59.376, "architecture_confidence": 69.571, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.17, "rotation_up": 26.44, "upward_expansion": 20.48, "deceleration": 66.41, "rotation_down": 50.02, "downward_expansion": 72.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.295159, 14.274023, 14.78505, 15.285005 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.84, "trend_reference": 15.916312, "distance_from_trend": -0.067623, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.782796, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.259463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.722735, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136174, "excess_performance": -0.256595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067623, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018119, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.259463, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200522, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137227, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129661, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.600162, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49500, "relative_activity": 0.341945, "balance": 0.600162, "dry_up": 0.469225, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037247, "annualized_volatility": 0.23224, "from_high_reference": -0.205057, "from_low_reference": 0.184335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.916312, "fair_value_reference": 11.782796, "structural_low": 13.757925, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011227, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008999, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.061135, "worst_return": -0.040184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061059, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.001797, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.133148, "worst_return": -0.029814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.099364, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007494, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.153735, "worst_return": 0.079482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -70.322724, "energy": 87.620424, "activity_lines": [ 14.280232, 14.653056, 15.315801, 15.758788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.88706, "volume": 69800, "typical_volume": 162655.0, "trend": 16.062142, "fair_value": 11.664629, "relative_strength": -17.321411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.310143, "energy": 86.896454, "activity_lines": [ 14.133152, 14.443688, 15.124535, 15.615016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.02613, "volume": 61300, "typical_volume": 156955.0, "trend": 16.003396, "fair_value": 11.701761, "relative_strength": -16.537887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.04753, "energy": 67.66386, "activity_lines": [ 14.083991, 14.305456, 14.967199, 15.48366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.04, "volume": 91100, "typical_volume": 158215.0, "trend": 15.955758, "fair_value": 11.73947, "relative_strength": -15.878791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.133172, "energy": 64.459635, "activity_lines": [ 14.054594, 14.202119, 14.829758, 15.356989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.84, "volume": 49500, "typical_volume": 144760.0, "trend": 15.916312, "fair_value": 11.782796, "relative_strength": -13.722735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.392648, "energy": 51.542683, "activity_lines": [ 14.295159, 14.274023, 14.78505, 15.285005 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }