{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9acddc0f-c108-4a8b-9aa5-9ec801283c3d", "symbol": "HKOR", "name": "HSBC MSCI KOREA CAPPED UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.373, "architecture_energy": 23.36, "architecture_maturity": 65.04, "architecture_confidence": 76.267, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.57, "rotation_up": 14.14, "upward_expansion": 42.51, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 49.86, "downward_expansion": 38.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 119.454001, 127.511637, 129.525096, 123.071981 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 119.120003, "trend_reference": 113.393363, "distance_from_trend": 0.050502, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.36206, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.973425, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.655987, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.366525, "excess_performance": 0.195634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050502, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.24446, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.973425, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.563883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.14656, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.588917, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.366525, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.82645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26884, "relative_activity": 1.749691, "balance": 0.82645, "dry_up": 2.393443, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115139, "annualized_volatility": 0.542706, "from_high_reference": -0.24445, "from_low_reference": 1.440517 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.393363, "fair_value_reference": 60.36206, "structural_low": 82.620003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00618, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.013216, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.262988, "worst_return": -0.067245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011894, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.024682, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.567224, "worst_return": -0.123898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.055761, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.091522, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.073973, "worst_return": -0.076165, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.285763, "energy": 25.246046, "activity_lines": [ 133.486667, 137.786728, 130.45162, 121.515455 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 121.830002, "volume": 34501, "typical_volume": 15296.85, "trend": 110.608607, "fair_value": 59.448018, "relative_strength": 24.036792, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.679195, "energy": 26.708966, "activity_lines": [ 127.695334, 134.759819, 130.591525, 122.361805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.519997, "volume": 44377, "typical_volume": 15978.05, "trend": 112.023665, "fair_value": 59.886337, "relative_strength": 14.638724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.037738, "energy": 21.407189, "activity_lines": [ 121.766666, 130.542728, 129.892572, 122.614152 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.120003, "volume": 26884, "typical_volume": 15365.0, "trend": 113.393363, "fair_value": 60.36206, "relative_strength": 14.655987, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.37289, "energy": 23.359616, "activity_lines": [ 119.454001, 127.511637, 129.525096, 123.071981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }