{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ace2116-c216-41fc-ad43-58cceb201799", "symbol": "FEMR", "name": "Fidelity Emerging Markets Equity Research Enhanced UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.644, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.355, "architecture_energy": 25.527, "architecture_maturity": 65.812, "architecture_confidence": 79.121, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.99, "rotation_up": 18.91, "upward_expansion": 53.4, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 34.51, "downward_expansion": 19.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.321533, 6.409127, 6.3717, 6.212426 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 6.375, "trend_reference": 6.0133, "distance_from_trend": 0.06015, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.669452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.365257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.035487, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132126, "excess_performance": -0.038766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074975, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.365257, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120263, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132126, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.761357, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36844, "relative_activity": 2.021491, "balance": 0.761357, "dry_up": 2.356244, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038262, "annualized_volatility": 0.233054, "from_high_reference": -0.0625, "from_low_reference": 0.378378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.0133, "fair_value_reference": 4.669452, "structural_low": 5.194, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010082, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.012244, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.121573, "worst_return": -0.015134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035663, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.017617, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.242768, "worst_return": 0.003392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.049618, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.090499, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.314818, "worst_return": 0.02623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.105995, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.108495, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.107489, "worst_return": 0.104501, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000899, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028783, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026777, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.251, "volume": 54392, "typical_volume": 16666.05, "trend": 5.982967, "fair_value": 4.653189, "relative_strength": -0.979343, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.540246, "energy": 24.341506, "activity_lines": [ 6.326067, 6.428582, 6.351495, 6.187133 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.375, "volume": 36844, "typical_volume": 18226.15, "trend": 6.0133, "fair_value": 4.669452, "relative_strength": -2.035487, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.354794, "energy": 25.526854, "activity_lines": [ 6.321533, 6.409127, 6.3717, 6.212426 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }