{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9acf8784-fbd4-4e7b-a9ae-869e0311bea2", "symbol": "3095", "name": "Chi Cheng Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.009, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.601, "architecture_energy": 6.272, "architecture_maturity": 23.577, "architecture_confidence": 63.076, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.69, "rotation_up": 21.71, "upward_expansion": 45.51, "deceleration": 75.36, "rotation_down": 27.67, "downward_expansion": 30.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.193334, 38.238182, 39.491667, 38.496452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.5, "trend_reference": 36.646667, "distance_from_trend": 0.023285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.486859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027767, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.095751, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.215559, "excess_performance": -0.225813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100776, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.027767, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254413, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160958, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.215559, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532974, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12238, "relative_activity": 0.087051, "balance": 0.532974, "dry_up": 0.23871, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090256, "annualized_volatility": 0.441406, "from_high_reference": -0.241658, "from_low_reference": 0.748252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.646667, "fair_value_reference": 36.486859, "structural_low": 30.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.003425, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.006619, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.448754, "worst_return": -0.293443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082687, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.054242, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.734072, "worst_return": -0.368211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003289, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.169116, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.82069, "worst_return": -0.327298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098958, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170702, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012712, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110991, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042746, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131868, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.297837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015748, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 13000, "typical_volume": 54600.0, "trend": 26.87, "fair_value": 32.104045, "relative_strength": -28.549942, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", 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"trend": 35.43, "fair_value": 36.120833, "relative_strength": -13.600677, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.825196, "energy": 13.779603, "activity_lines": [ 37.906667, 39.243636, 39.556428, 37.861183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.299999, "volume": 42037, "typical_volume": 143080.05, "trend": 35.801667, "fair_value": 36.214744, "relative_strength": -9.612431, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.030469, "energy": 13.12975, "activity_lines": [ 38.283333, 38.974545, 39.675476, 38.11086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.400002, "volume": 42080, "typical_volume": 142410.6, "trend": 36.095, "fair_value": 36.29968, "relative_strength": -12.281685, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.031155, "energy": 10.677039, "activity_lines": [ 38.006667, 38.463636, 39.578809, 38.213978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.400002, "volume": 37880, "typical_volume": 141735.45, "trend": 36.426667, "fair_value": 36.4, "relative_strength": -9.290668, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.50707, "energy": 9.038736, "activity_lines": [ 38.443334, 38.489091, 39.644524, 38.427204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 37.5, "volume": 12238, "typical_volume": 140583.85, "trend": 36.646667, "fair_value": 36.486859, "relative_strength": -16.095751, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.600863, "energy": 6.271654, "activity_lines": [ 38.193334, 38.238182, 39.491667, 38.496452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }