{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ad849c7-d1c8-4c40-8d2d-ca02576c85c9", "symbol": "6757", "name": "Tigerair Taiwan Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 71.85, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 8.049, "architecture_energy": 8.692, "architecture_maturity": 12.324, "architecture_confidence": 38.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.64, "rotation_up": 30.03, "upward_expansion": 32.47, "deceleration": 60.76, "rotation_down": 31.53, "downward_expansion": 21.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.573641, 55.732943, 54.529177, 53.825911 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 54.799999, "trend_reference": 54.563195, "distance_from_trend": 0.00434, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.044633, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004444, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.599242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.121185, "excess_performance": -0.562557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00434, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049095, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074139, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.375992, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138567, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121185, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.913501, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6726809, "relative_activity": 0.590971, "balance": 1.913501, "dry_up": 0.706999, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082484, "annualized_volatility": 0.47177, "from_high_reference": -0.303797, "from_low_reference": 0.215243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.563195, "fair_value_reference": 55.044633, "structural_low": 45.093861, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.010118, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.009442, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.338346, "worst_return": -0.203994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002976, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.034123, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.761194, "worst_return": -0.239305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.177808, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.118183, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.755952, "worst_return": -0.153895, 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56.025415, 55.43593, 53.256662, 53.76103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.027699, "volume": 8668874, "typical_volume": 11493597.45, "trend": 55.180602, "fair_value": 54.73942, "relative_strength": -41.287723, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.929032, "energy": 12.615866, "activity_lines": [ 54.514317, 54.994251, 53.286264, 53.532113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.400002, "volume": 11170998, "typical_volume": 11219850.85, "trend": 55.002626, "fair_value": 54.838817, "relative_strength": -33.172265, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.977516, "energy": 10.253811, "activity_lines": [ 55.036272, 55.485882, 53.815218, 53.6753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.400002, "volume": 5623351, "typical_volume": 11284828.5, "trend": 54.862906, "fair_value": 54.948203, "relative_strength": -33.595552, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.32291, "energy": 10.382046, "activity_lines": [ 55.722901, 55.874618, 54.312214, 53.829969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 54.799999, "volume": 6726809, "typical_volume": 11382631.9, "trend": 54.563195, "fair_value": 55.044633, "relative_strength": -37.599242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.048803, "energy": 8.692016, "activity_lines": [ 55.573641, 55.732943, 54.529177, 53.825911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }