{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9adbd510-5e9d-48e2-ba46-536d22372a2d", "symbol": "TPIPP", "name": "TPI Polene Power Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 87.267, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.81, "architecture_energy": 19.836, "architecture_maturity": 15.683, "architecture_confidence": 67.85, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.05, "rotation_up": 42.11, "upward_expansion": 26.2, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 15.83, "downward_expansion": 46.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.810667, 1.796364, 1.800905, 1.810419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.82, "trend_reference": 1.815749, "distance_from_trend": 0.002341, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.425623, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249677, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.766066, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.027811, "excess_performance": -0.164514, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002341, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -3.5e-05, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249677, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021563, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167661, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036743, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027811, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.080062, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23444500, "relative_activity": 1.345739, "balance": 1.080062, "dry_up": 1.365485, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021133, "annualized_volatility": 0.160642, "from_high_reference": -0.218524, "from_low_reference": 0.139261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.815749, "fair_value_reference": 2.425623, "structural_low": 1.703387, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.004762, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.00733, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.054945, "worst_return": -0.063636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023474, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.037655, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.018604, "worst_return": -0.08271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014888, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.044177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016997, "worst_return": -0.183036, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.095498, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051608, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.015836, "worst_return": -0.165004, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02027, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.145446, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09009, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034314, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005525, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.83912, "volume": 9587900, "typical_volume": 8912265.0, "trend": 2.820021, "fair_value": 3.025104, "relative_strength": 5.928483, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.79, "volume": 14457000, "typical_volume": 15683720.0, "trend": 1.807617, "fair_value": 2.451405, "relative_strength": -21.573264, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.015861, "energy": 19.641638, "activity_lines": [ 1.772, 1.771818, 1.802652, 1.809915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.82, "volume": 39068400, "typical_volume": 16739650.0, "trend": 1.81022, "fair_value": 2.445089, "relative_strength": -20.35658, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.555789, "energy": 7.567276, "activity_lines": [ 1.79, 1.779455, 1.802764, 1.810714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.81, "volume": 20366400, "typical_volume": 16843970.0, "trend": 1.811208, "fair_value": 2.438709, "relative_strength": -20.2821, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.552191, "energy": 19.89114, "activity_lines": [ 1.8, 1.785455, 1.802238, 1.8107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8, "volume": 12274700, "typical_volume": 16817190.0, "trend": 1.813145, "fair_value": 2.432156, "relative_strength": -19.08181, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.572332, "energy": 20.077561, "activity_lines": [ 1.803333, 1.789273, 1.800619, 1.809976 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.82, "volume": 23444500, "typical_volume": 17421285.0, "trend": 1.815749, "fair_value": 2.425623, "relative_strength": -16.766066, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.809588, "energy": 19.835576, "activity_lines": [ 1.810667, 1.796364, 1.800905, 1.810419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }