{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ade5728-d110-41a1-96a4-c743dd3929d3", "symbol": "40V", "name": "Alset International Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.948, "architecture_energy": 68.589, "architecture_maturity": 67.21, "architecture_confidence": 91.07, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 15.81, "upward_expansion": 14.19, "deceleration": 43.24, "rotation_down": 69.81, "downward_expansion": 89.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.016867, 0.017436, 0.019019, 0.019927 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.020933, "distance_from_trend": -0.140127, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.02584, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.303399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.300131, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.297692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.140127, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085881, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.303399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.333001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.334452, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 275000, "relative_activity": 0.220775, "balance": 0.334452, "dry_up": 0.074462, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089744, "annualized_volatility": 0.478687, "from_high_reference": -0.357143, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.020933, "fair_value_reference": 0.02584, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.039231, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.050021, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 1.375, "worst_return": -0.258065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.066239, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.08659, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.318182, "worst_return": -0.290323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.092593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.15225, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.296296, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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0.018133, 0.0194, 0.020581, 0.021161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.017, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1700685.0, "trend": 0.021667, "fair_value": 0.025827, "relative_strength": -36.826026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.721017, "energy": 90.705385, "activity_lines": [ 0.017467, 0.018818, 0.020171, 0.020843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.016, "volume": 96000, "typical_volume": 1540320.0, "trend": 0.0214, "fair_value": 0.025833, "relative_strength": -40.680111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.548698, "energy": 91.118818, "activity_lines": [ 0.016733, 0.018127, 0.019695, 0.020477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.016, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1340320.0, "trend": 0.021133, "fair_value": 0.025833, "relative_strength": -40.521896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.869196, "energy": 89.900138, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.017545, 0.019248, 0.020129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 275000, "typical_volume": 1245610.0, "trend": 0.020933, "fair_value": 0.02584, "relative_strength": -33.300131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.948311, "energy": 68.588882, "activity_lines": [ 0.016867, 0.017436, 0.019019, 0.019927 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }