{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9ae1f923-cbe8-4010-b54e-e32d2df8bd49",
    "symbol": "XEUM",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Screened UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 89.562,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 88.386,
    "architecture_energy": 90.749,
    "architecture_maturity": 32.31,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.318,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 8.4,
        "rotation_up": 68.24,
        "upward_expansion": 93.78,
        "deceleration": 45.62,
        "rotation_down": 21.98,
        "downward_expansion": 20.45
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        209.730002,
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        200.43613
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 213.300003,
    "trend_reference": 197.141334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.081965,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 169.568974,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257895,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.473986,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.109551,
    "excess_performance": -0.061341,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081965,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043126,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.257895,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06503,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03474,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.018231,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.109551,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.874429,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 230,
      "relative_activity": 0.966184,
      "balance": 0.874429,
      "dry_up": 0.258349,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.014739,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.164605,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003038,
      "from_low_reference": 0.237239
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 197.141334,
      "fair_value_reference": 169.568974,
      "structural_low": 182.179993,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 37,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.459459,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.459459,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005998,
        "regime_survival": 0.756757,
        "best_return": 0.03852,
        "worst_return": -0.077601,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.013597,
        "positive_rate": 0.642857,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.642857,
        "median_excess_return": -0.039378,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.06855,
        "worst_return": -0.073624,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.04067,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
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        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.13617,
        "worst_return": -0.041862,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.11203,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.045331,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.136598,
        "worst_return": 0.001025,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "end": "2024-09-27",
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        "return": 0.04132,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020649,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-05-23",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 28.906029,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 195.960007,
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        "typical_volume": 170.0,
        "trend": 187.035,
        "fair_value": 164.276731,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
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        "energy": 58.797394,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "typical_volume": 259.6,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 189.691999,
        "fair_value": 165.756538,
        "relative_strength": -3.433636,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": -6.736824,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -2.814874,
        "stage": 3,
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.351855,
        "energy": 85.08046,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 205.850006,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 266.95,
        "trend": 192.876,
        "fair_value": 167.342564,
        "relative_strength": -5.892361,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.539966,
        "energy": 72.974445,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 209.850006,
        "volume": 6,
        "typical_volume": 267.2,
        "trend": 193.895668,
        "fair_value": 167.803013,
        "relative_strength": -3.514501,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.644031,
        "energy": 87.455171,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 206.5,
        "volume": 10,
        "typical_volume": 256.6,
        "trend": 194.803668,
        "fair_value": 168.241987,
        "relative_strength": -3.574203,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.569457,
        "energy": 78.909472,
        "activity_lines": [
          206.86667,
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          200.021811,
          197.689635
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 208.399994,
        "volume": 4,
        "typical_volume": 256.7,
        "trend": 195.775001,
        "fair_value": 168.693141,
        "relative_strength": -2.412582,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.507438,
        "energy": 86.002836,
        "activity_lines": [
          207.733333,
          205.661819,
          201.197143,
          198.566818
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 207.850006,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 256.8,
        "trend": 196.400668,
        "fair_value": 169.11359,
        "relative_strength": -3.248419,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.331908,
        "energy": 82.111077,
        "activity_lines": [
          207.860002,
          206.329093,
          202.240573,
          199.34585
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 213.300003,
        "volume": 230,
        "typical_volume": 238.05,
        "trend": 197.141334,
        "fair_value": 169.568974,
        "relative_strength": -3.473986,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.385732,
        "energy": 90.74926,
        "activity_lines": [
          209.730002,
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          203.726144,
          200.43613
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}