{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9aef96ff-810e-4c08-809c-761fb464a823", "symbol": "USE5", "name": "WisdomTree Short USD Long EUR 5x Daily", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.732, "architecture_energy": 33.325, "architecture_maturity": 49.299, "architecture_confidence": 61.779, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.48, "rotation_up": 23.74, "upward_expansion": 15.63, "deceleration": 65.42, "rotation_down": 42.25, "downward_expansion": 65.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.9893, 2.984218, 3.089505, 3.163808 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.0585, "trend_reference": 3.279983, "distance_from_trend": -0.067526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.237011, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055147, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.740893, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165484, "excess_performance": -0.336376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048131, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055147, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096061, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08115, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.501053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113505, "relative_activity": 1.001316, "balance": 0.501053, "dry_up": 1.651012, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062461, "annualized_volatility": 0.263516, "from_high_reference": -0.250368, "from_low_reference": 0.101567 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.279983, "fair_value_reference": 3.237011, "structural_low": 2.7765, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.018111, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.035126, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.211397, "worst_return": -0.180639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.081525, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.152129, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.447582, "worst_return": -0.327817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019864, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.19348, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.295672, "worst_return": -0.483541, "sufficient": true 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163838, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.09369, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082712, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.8955, "volume": 522436, "typical_volume": 119074.75, "trend": 3.3131, "fair_value": 3.24677, "relative_strength": -26.334755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.718777, "energy": 69.938323, "activity_lines": [ 2.925067, 2.989736, 3.116929, 3.1986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.008, "volume": 66927, "typical_volume": 114697.15, "trend": 3.292683, "fair_value": 3.241184, "relative_strength": -23.419306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.50941, "energy": 45.090861, "activity_lines": [ 2.9514, 2.980273, 3.100557, 3.178916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.0585, "volume": 113505, "typical_volume": 113355.8, "trend": 3.279983, "fair_value": 3.237011, "relative_strength": -23.740893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.731778, "energy": 33.324601, "activity_lines": [ 2.9893, 2.984218, 3.089505, 3.163808 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }