{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9af1247a-efee-43f4-a832-2877c70740e3", "symbol": "VNGD60", "name": "Vanguard LifeStrategy 60% Equity UCITS ETF (EUR) Distributing", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.989, "architecture_energy": 43.385, "architecture_maturity": 55.556, "architecture_confidence": 68.505, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.73, "rotation_up": 43.5, "upward_expansion": 67.61, "deceleration": 85.28, "rotation_down": 27.13, "downward_expansion": 17.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.451332, 32.454955, 32.217974, 31.882808 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.82, "trend_reference": 31.504737, "distance_from_trend": 0.041748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.087134, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168507, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.851371, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.06472, "excess_performance": -0.106172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022283, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010783, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088514, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019672, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.563481, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5686, "relative_activity": 0.486494, "balance": 1.563481, "dry_up": 1.174333, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013371, "annualized_volatility": 0.078413, "from_high_reference": -0.002432, "from_low_reference": 0.130837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.504737, "fair_value_reference": 28.087134, "structural_low": 29.715, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007927, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.013484, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.038755, "worst_return": -0.06442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019727, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007117, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076479, "worst_return": 0.013165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06704, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.036143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.093824, "worst_return": 0.065034, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -7.465749, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.646981, "energy": 54.658719, "activity_lines": [ 32.440666, 32.420712, 32.066161, 31.748011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.099998, "volume": 9504, "typical_volume": 12018.2, "trend": 31.442737, "fair_value": 28.028531, "relative_strength": -8.437185, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.972294, "energy": 37.519625, "activity_lines": [ 32.315665, 32.372964, 32.111389, 31.793952 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.82, "volume": 5686, "typical_volume": 11687.7, "trend": 31.504737, "fair_value": 28.087134, "relative_strength": -8.851371, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.988521, "energy": 43.384807, "activity_lines": [ 32.451332, 32.454955, 32.217974, 31.882808 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }